Mid-day Update

FOMC statement just moments away.

This morning’s noN-bias environment eventually dipped to 2260.25, still short of its potential to 2258.00. That’s more paralysis than pessimism ahead of the FOMC policy statement coming in 15 minutes.

Bouncing into and out of the noon hour triggered a late bias-up above 2266.75. The signal is still being overlapped, having produced only a 1 tick fresh high above the open’s 2267.75 peak.

Regardless of the statement’s particulars, reaction to it should be volatile, with a likelihood of probing fresh highs and also swinging into negative territory, both. Neither directly is likelier to precede the other, or not to be followed again by the other. And Yellen’s conference should start the process again.

And higher.

The open’s surge up to 2267.75 had formed a symmetrical triangle, a pattern that tends often to break falsely in one direction before reversing more substantially in the opposite direction. Its minimum target at 2260.50 was tested down to 2259.50, and then price started reversing back up. A buy signal that triggered above 2264.00 has only now violated a pullback limit after touching 2273.00.

Overbought RSIs at the high require its retest. But nothing higher is required. Ever. The triangle’s reversal has been more substantial than its false break. Retesting Sunday night’s high was likely to visit 2270.00. And this afternoon’s 2272.00 bias-up target was met, while testing it too late to renew the bias-up signal.

A reaction down to 2269.00. could extend to 2266.50 and not yet begin to damage the chart’s uptrend.Greeting tomorrow’s FOMC news at this point in the pattern would be strength. Having probed fresh highs ahead of the news, today’s close must be back under 2266.00 to at least suggest the upside momentum is lapsing.

Reversal not yet confirmed, but the burden of proof has shifted.

Buyers have failed to exploit multiple opportunities to extend the rally:

o Last night’s opening surge didn’t form a required retest.
o Probing above Friday’s high was isolated to the overnight.
o The post-open probe above Friday’s high was isolated between the opening 15 minutes of volatility and the 10:15 bias timing widow.
o The post-open surge held a 61.8% retracement of the overnight reaction.
o And the bias environment’s test of the open’s low resolved down.

None of which is yet conclusive to signal the trend reversing down. This morning’s 2253.25 and this afternoon’s 2247.25 bias signals held off attempts to trigger them And now this afternoon’s bias signal is being tested, too late/early for its probe to be strong-handed sponsorship.

The bigger picture is vulnerable to beginning a multi-session pullback today. There’s no bearish reason for this afternoon not to be in decline already. Ranging narrowly sideways and then gapping down sharply tomorrow would be credible. Otherwise, any further delay would make last night’s high likely to be retested.

REMINDER: I am away from the screens during today’s noon hour and into the afternoon bias environment, then back through the close..

The rally holds and advances, one window at a time.

(Charts and price references all basis Mar.) It took its time today, but the rally has resumed. Or, is trying to resume

Fluctuating choppily around yesterday’s high lasted through the morning and into noon, before finally starting to firm. And then suddenly surging. Now yesterday’s high has been probed by almost 9 points up to 2245.00 (basis Mar). This afternoon’s bias-up has triggered.

This morning’s bias-up signal was tested but not triggered. The grace period missed being invoked by only 1-2 ticks. So, an offsetting test of its its bias-down signal won’t be considered “unfinished business below.” This doesn’t mean it can’t be met, or won’t, sooner or later. But it’s not an outstanding attraction below.

However, there’s a new attraction above. It is this afternoon’s 2246.50 bias-up target, put into play by triggering the 2239.50 bias-up signal. It will become “unfinished business above” if left outstanding, unless the bias environment were to lapse under 2236.00.

Stay on high alert for the ongoing potential of reversing down sharply today. This risk won’t be any lesser tomorrow, but it would likelier recover if avoided today. Avoiding a sharp reversal down would also confirm yesterday’s break above 2220.00. Closing under it today would start to seal a top.