Mid-day Update

Giving the upside benefit of little doubt.

The bias environment exit is probing above its 2163.75 bias-up signal. Only by a couple of ticks, and probing above it began only  a couple of minutes prior to coming within 10-15 minutes of the bias environment lapsing. So, I’m willing to dismiss that from being “no-bias trending.” Especially since this morning’s behavior suggests the rally will extend substantially today.

Meanwhile, no-bias Friday afternoons don’t often suddenly resume a morning trend. This is contrary to the morning’s suggestion of extending the rally. Back under 2162.00 would also be contrary — so contrary as to target 2155.50 and lower.

Back-and-fill becomes bottomless pit.

Not gapping up this morning above yesterday’s highs already had foreclosed upon resuming the rally, before late-afternoon at the earliest. More likely was a morning to be spent backing-and-filling, probably to 2155.50, possibly to 2152.00, and with room down to 2149.00 before something much bigger might be considered underway.

Something much bigger is underway. The question is whether it’s already done.

The noon hour reacted up from 2155.50 to 2163.00. The decline’s resumption barely acknowledged the 2152.50 bias-down signal, and renewed it under the 2147.00 bias-down target at 1:20. Now the 2138.00-2139.00 renewed bias-down target has been met. And it defines the low of a bounce to 2143.50.

Back under 2139.00 would target at least a retest of the 2137.25 low, where RSIs were oversold. And that would risk resuming the decline. Otherwise, ignoring the oversold RSIs and recovering 2145.25 (being tested now) could also exit the bias environment above its last relative high at 2149.00 — which would form a short-squeeze setup targeting 2160.50.

Morning’s drop fulfills selling pressure.

Maintaining the open’s gap up through the open has created an anchor. That anchor can come in handy when price doesn’t simply extend the gap.

Price did not extend higher this morning. That was a problem for the recovery, since the open also held a test of its 2155.00 bias-up signal. Triggering no-bias then put into play an offsetting test of the 2145.00 bias-down signal.

2145.00 was tested by this morning’s lows. Every bar probing under it was also overlapping it. Holding meant that all selling pressure was expended without gaining new traction for the effort.

Reacting up into the noon hour has only ranged sideways. Fresh highs being probed now are coming too late to trigger the afternoon’s 2152.00 bias-up signal. Its test was likely, and is being fulfilled, but still needs to define the bias environment’s upper-end.

When the no-bias environment is at least within view of lapsing, then trending higher would be more reliable. The alternative is not necessarily to resume this morning’s decline. But back under 2148.25 again would be suspicious.

Probing lower, at a suspicious time.

Monday’s open did not recover 2149.00, which was also the bias-down target. But fresh lows did give a bounce its best chance, as knee-jerk sellers could only temporarily probe under overnight lows down to 2141.25. A bounce retested the opening high up to 2149.50.

That was too late to qualify as a recovery, which was probed by its reversal to fresh lows at 2140.00. And now that has been probed down to 2137.75 — 1 tick under the afternoon’s bias-down signal, during a no-bias environment.

So, once again, a bounce’s best chance is to have expended all available selling pressure. RSIs improved or diverged positively, at relevant support, when least likely to gain traction for the effort.

Having probed fresh session lows during the afternoon bias environment, exiting the bias environment back above a prior high like 2144.50-2145.00 could trigger a short-squeeze through the close. The decline otherwise maintains its momentum, which is very dangerous at this spot in the chart.

Bias environment lows have given way.

Being at the bottom of this morning’s range was a given as the bias environment was entered. Bouncing toward or to its upper-end was not a given, although there was room. Plenty of room, but zero assurance. And the bias environment only ranged narrowly at its lows.

Now the lows have given way. Not that sellers are much more forceful. Dipping to 2159.75 just managed to touch this afternoon’s 2161.25 bias-down signal within 3 minutes of 1:20 to invoke the grace period. And it was still being overlapped at 1:30 to avoid triggering.

This is a noN-bias environment. Not bias-down, not no-bias, but noN-bias. No target or objective is in-play.

Back above 2163.50 would start to signal a rally underway anyway. But where there is no likelihood for trending down, there is potential to gravitate down.