Mid-day Update

Noon hour hovering at morning lows.

The open’s drop from 2157.50 down to 2146.25 had consolidated throughout the bias environment. Its bounces became shallower, and the consolidation broke lower when the bias environment began lapsing at 11:30.

Much lower. A 10-point plunge was already being retraced into the noon hour.

The plunge’s retracement measured 61.8% before returning to attack the plunge’s low. Ranging through the noon hour has repeatedly threatened the lows. The only attempt to break lower was barely 3 minutes old before surging back up to the afternoon’s 2142.50 bias-up signal.

2142.50 was touched at 1:20 to invoke the grace period. Its recovery through 1:30 would trigger late bias-up. Also recovering 2143.50 by 1:30 (being tested now) would be helpful confirmation. Otherwise, a late no-bias environment could still test its 2137.00 bias-down signal.

Late-morning surge isn’t backing-off. Or extending.

Not immediately rejecting the overnight slide to 2147.50 had made fresh lows likely post-open. A blip-up to 2151.75 quickly resolved down.

Fresh post-open lows down to 2144.50 had created a new opportunity for rejecting sellers. There wasn’t even a blip-up before eventually extending lower to 2143.50.

Quickly rejecting that last low would still be credible for extending up. In fact, the bias environment ended by surging back up to and through the open’s highs. The noon hour quickly printed 2156.75. And then quickly stopped extending.

An extremely narrow 3-point noon hour range has been choppy, but not trending. Still not trending, after an entire timing window has elapsed since a direction-changing surge. A recovery must be obvious this afternoon to avoid another downdraft. Otherwise, the surge was only a correction that refuels the decline.

Hovering at the morning’s highs.

Fluctuating choppily around this morning’s 2153.00 bias-up target between 2150.00-2155.00 hasn’t really broken out either way. The ascending triangular pattern did eventually break higher at noon. Momentarily. Shallowly. Ranging more narrowly since then has been centered around the morning’s 2155.50 high.

None of which is a sell signal. The morning’s price action wasn’t inconsistent with having inverted yesterday’s bearish setup, although not much exploited. Now the renewed bias-up signal has lapsed, without creating any required upside objective.

But the pattern isn’t bearish. Resolving up remains likelier than down. Still, a blip-down may become necessary to stretch the rubber band for snapping back up, especially if not already rallying out of this afternoon’s bias environment.

Dipping under 2150.50-2151.25 could be too deep of a stretch to snap back up. At least, not before attacking yesterday’s lows — which would risk breaking under them.

Choppy morning was only the half of it.

Quickly recovering this morning’s dive was limited to its 2156.50 bias-up signal, which needed to define the no-bias environment’s upper-end. More than that, it pushed price back down to retest the initial dive’s 2147.75 low. And lower, down to 2145.00.

Still being a no-bias environment, and being under the 2148.75 bias-down signal, a recovery was required. Only back up to 2148.75 would have sufficed, but 2156.50 was retested. By then, the bias environment was starting to lapse, so probing above it was allowed.

But not required. The noon hour settled back in around 2148.75.

Not already recovering before the noon hour end came into view would be bearish. Retesting the morning’s lows upon exiting the noon hour would be bearish. Both conditions were met, and to erase any doubt, the noon hour’s exit slid to fresh lows at 2138.50.

Bias-down triggered, its 2140.75 target was met, and the likelihood for retesting last week’s lows down to 2138.00-2139.00 has been fulfilled. Oversold RSIs at the low undermine whether this dip can recover, but back above 2143.50 would get a benefit of the doubt. Otherwise, exiting the bias environment trending down could extending the drop into Thursday.

Range’s lower-end should hold.

Many usual participants aren’t available today due to the Jewish holidays. So, breaking beyond a relevant support or resistance is difficult. Fluctuating between them is easier, although none is required to be tested.

The noon hour low did test Thursday’s close around 2147.50. RSIs diverged positively on its retest, and the reaction has bounced as high as 2152.25. That still didn’t trigger this afternoon’s 2154.25 bias-up signal, but neither did it trigger the 2147.50 bias-down.

So although bouncing any higher isn’t required, it’s natural. And 2154.25 can be tested or probed while waiting for the bias environment to lapse. Then, limited participation or not, probing higher would be credible for gaining traction.

Similarly, exiting the bias environment by probing under 2147.50 could extend. There would still be sponsorship problem, but something more substantial might be underway to have inhibited a bigger bounce.