Mid-day Update

Was the upside objective invalidated?

That’s the most important question facing the market today. There was no outstanding higher objective until this morning’s 2164.25 bias-down signal held through 10:15. It put into play an offsetting test of the 2171.25 bias-up signal.

Was that test Invalidated? Not at 10:30, despite being attacked then. Invalidating it then required exiting the bias environment under the 2159.75 bias-down TARGET.  You’ll never guess what a sudden plunge from 2167.50 was attacking through 11:30-noon.

The 2159.75 bias-down target. To within 1 tick.

It’s still being tested now, during the noon hour, while RSIs diverge positively. But that upside objective is looking pretty dubious. No other upside objective, and a big target (2168.00) tested and retested. This market can get very bearish very quickly if that upside objective isn’t valid.

Back above 2163.00 would be the first indication of retesting yesterday’s high. But there’s not much time available to get that done.

All upside requirements fulfilled.

The 2168.00 new Globex trend extreme that had printed last week required being retested intraday. Its retest was likely also to touch 2169.00. This morning’s 2169.75 high neutralized the attraction.

Overbought 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs at the morning’s high required a retest. The noon hour’s dip to 2166.50 was recovered back up to 2169.75, and 3-minute RSI didn’t recover to overbought. The retest is fulfilled.

Oversold RSIs at this morning’s 2158.50 low developed during the open, so they don’t require retest. It’s still an attraction, but not required.

Another influence may soon be relevant:

Today’s new highs are attempting a breakout from a multi-session range. Assuming the breakout is maintained, tomorrow would be the confirmation session — either closing higher to confirm the breakout, or not. Testing the room for noise above 2168.00 to 2175.00 without confirming the breakout would be bearish.

Meanwhile, this afternoon’s retest of this morning’s high will probably visit 2171.25. Back under 2166.25 would signal momentum already reversing down.

Can’t get off the morning lows.

The open’s dip to 2153.25 could have avoided being probed had its reaction produced a break to fresh highs. Fresh highs were probed, but too shallowly and too briefly to reflect strong-handed sponsorship. A reaction down pierced 2153.25.

Not that a bottom has finally formed. Still ranging choppily at session lows, that could extend down to 2152.00 or to the 2148.00 area.

Today’s session wasn’t likely to produce serious selling, and it hasn’t. Post-action ranging has been relatively choppy. Although a rally effort isn’t required, exiting each timing window without yet recovering suggests just makes lower likelier.

Awaiting more sponsorship.

The bullish WedEX is now moot. A 2-point post-open dip to 2153.00 support was reversed up to 2162.00. Bias-up triggered, putting into play 2163.75 which is now “unfinished business above.”

This afternoon’s no-bias environment can fluctuate between its signals. That allows room to this afternoon’s 2164.50 bias-up signal, which encompasses the unfinished business above.

No further rally today is required. But exiting the bias environment under the noon hour’s 2157.75 low would be the first indication that this afternoon won’t likely rally.

Target below met, timing window lapsing, weekend ahead.

The open’s gap up to 2164.00 was the product of a late surge, making it suspect in this pattern. Its reversal down was immediate, and extended down to 2157.00. Rejecting the bias-up signal put into play a test of 2152.00.

Non-committal RSIs made the decline vulnerable to a choppy ride. But that was limited to a single bounce up to 2160.50. The decline had soon resumed, and now 2152.00 is being pierced by 2 ticks.

Meeting the target does not equate to being a buy signal. Lower lows may yet be probed. RSIs are oversold again, and the bias environment is lapsing. WedEX’s bullish influence can now appear, but not necessarily yet. Back above 2155.75 would signal momentum reversing up.