Mid-day Update

The open’s range is holding.

Sliding 6 points through the open from 2161.50 was recovered to a fresh post-open high at 2163.00. That’s still 5 points short of the overnight high. But the balance of the morning only stair-stepped back down to the open’s low.

At least, toward the open’s low.

The open’s low is being avoided. Less and less so, with each dip. But still avoided. That’s optimism, which is potentially bearish from a contrarian perspective.

Back above 2160.00 would be credible for resuming the rally. The overnight high is a “new Globex trend extreme” which requires intraday retest, probably up to 2169.00. Testing it first would likely react down even more substantially than already.

But first probing fresh post-open lows — probably also testing 2153.00 — would likely launch a retest of the overnight highs by a wider margin.

Is today’s dip only a healthy correction?.

Rejecting the test of this morning’s 2149.25 bias-up signal through 10:15 had put into play anoffsetting test of the 2141.00 bias-down signal.

2141.00 was tested down to 2139.50. Only 1-minute RSI diverged positively, but 3-minute RSI was making a higher oversold low after leaving oversold territory. Its reaction spiked up to 2141.00.

Price has only eked higher since then. The path down had been interrupted by ranging between 2143.50-2148.00. Now that range has been tested as resistance.

Back above 2144.00 and 2145.50 would be so far removed from the morning’s low that its downward momentum could be marginalized. That wouldn’t in itself require a recovery, no earlier than late-afternoon since no traction was gained yesterday.

Triggering the 2147.25 bias-up signal is possible, but not necessary to produce another new highs — for which fresh session lows may be the only deterrent.

Noon hour’s highs have yet to extend.

We discussed after yesterday’s close how the session’s specific contradictory signals were suggesting a very wide-ranging session today.

Already swinging widely this morning doesn’t mean that’s necessarily done. Neither does already fulfilling the 2143.00 objective, and its room for noise above that begins at 2147.25.

Today’s pattern has so far duplicated yesterday’s — Reacting down from a gap up, then recovering to new highs during the noon hour, triggering no-bias. Similar setups that appear sequentially should resolve differently. Yesterday afternoon only range sideways, so today should either reverse down, or else extend up.

That latter option is problematic. Being a no-bias environment, trending up would be “no-bias trending” that is doomed to failure. The noon hour has created a Complex Ascending Triangle pattern that can function as a Double Top reversal.

Fresh highs could test 2151.25-2152.75 before reversing down. And having stretched the rubber band, that would reverse down substantially if the rally doesn’t intend to put higher targets into play.

A shallower reversal down could still recover 2143.00 through the close to create higher objectives. Reversing down first isn’t required, or reversing down from only slightly higher highs — but that would be likelier to dip only briefly.

Probing new highs has run into a no-bias.

Maintaining the 2127.50 gap up through 9:45 had anchored the rally to prevent a reaction down from drifting off course. In fact, a blip-down touched 2125.25 and soon recovered back to and through the open’s 2132.50 high.

Firming attacked 2135.00 before the noon hour began, and 2137.00 before the noon hour ended. Not yet rejecting fresh extremes 40-45 minutes through the noon hour is essentially another anchor in case the rally drifts lower again.

This afternoon’s 2136.25 bias-up signal didn’t trigger, so extending higher isn’t likely until the bias environment begins lapsing. Room is available down to this afternoon’s 2129.00 bias-down signal need not be exploited fully.

Fresh highs keeping alive the upside momentum.

The post-close pre-Brexit 2119.50 high was the next higher resistance above the 2115.00 objective. It’s just a prior high. It’s not an objective or target that fulfills buying pressure.

But testing it intraday makes closing back under it likely to extend into another deeper detour below.

2119.50 and its bias-up signal 1 tick higher were just touched at 1:30. Too late to invoke the grace period or to trigger, and too shallow to invalidate the no-bias. Probing higher anyway would be “no-bias trending” and doomed to failure.

Now having probed a fresh session high during the afternoon bias environment, exiting the bias environment back under a prior high or low could meltdown into the close. Otherwise, be very careful stepping in front of the uptrend.