Mid-day Update
Mid-day Update… Digestion.
Consolidating this morning’s rally.
Resistance at 2053.50 was only a temporary obstacle before extending to the next higher objective at 2055.50. Its resistance was limited to a brief 2-point reaction down. The rally easily extnded into a noon hour peak attacking 2060.00.
Dipping to 2054.00 prevented the afternoon’s 2058.75 bias-up signal from triggering. The no-bias environment is ranging narrowly.
Resuming this morning’s rally is this afternoon’s least likely resolution. Just hovering at the highs is likelier, or else trending back down through the 2044.00 open.
If trending up is least likely, then trending up would likely be done very aggressively. Fading a fresh high would be credible, but be sure not to get caught short if the high isn’t quickly rejected.
Mid-day Update… Hung up.
Locked into a sideways range.
The overnight rally had extended through the open up to 2018.00. It was already dipping into the bias timing window at 10:15. The bias environment trended down to 2006.00.
That leg has since contained price action.
Bouncing through the noon hour touched the afternoon’s 2015.75 bias-up signal, stopping short of the high. Bias-up didn’t signal, and now a reaction down to 2009.00 is pausing short of the morning’s lows.
Exiting the bias environment at 2:30 above the noon hour’s 2016.00 high would be vulnerable to trending up through the close. Similarly, exiting the bias environment at 2:30 under this morning’s 2006.00 low could fill the gap back to yesterday’s 1991.00 close.
Mid-day Update… Getting acclimated.
Consolidating under prior lows.
Room down to 1980.00 doesn’t have to be touched, let alone probed. In fact, this morning’s drop extended down to 1981.50 before bouncing to 1997.00.
The noon hour dipped momentarily to 1988.50, but essentially ranged choppily sideways. A fresh high would target 2003.75, although that would be “no-bias trending” if not delayed.
A break lower has a little more room, to the 1986.50 bias-down signal, would avoid no-bias trending.
Mid-day Update… All back to normal. Right?
Opening surge largely retraced.
Few weeks have the action offered already by today’s post-open range. Rallying 33 points off of the 2031.50 opening print. Reversing down 29 points through the noon hour’s exit.
Things can get noisy with ranges a small fraction of this size.
This afternoon’s 2040.75 bias-down signal was last touched 5 minutes before 1:20, triggering bias-down. It was soon probed up to 2045.25, but that reacted down to 2039.50. This is a bias-down environment.
A bigger corrective bounce to 2049.00 can’t be discounted. But neither can a last-hour decline that probes last night’s lows down to 1993.50. Only exiting this afternoon’s bias environment above the noon hour’s 2050.00 high would make a rally leg likely.
Mid-day Update… Time to duck?
Upside fulfilled without higher targets in-play, news looming.
Having renewed its bias-up signal, and despite already fulfilling its 2095.00 renewed bias-up target, fresh highs were likely to test the 2099.50 doubly-renewed bias-up target.
2099.50 was this morning’s high, touched twice before noon. The reaction down is attacking 2095.00.
Having fulfilled the upside target and held it, the balance of the session may very well focus on the coming Brexit/Bremain vote results, and only range choppily. Any advance news that suggests Remain will win could trigger another upleg anyway.
Whether in anticipation of Remain or in reaction to it, higher highs have potential to 2015.00. Otherwise, back-and-filling still has room down to 2088.00. Back under 2084.00 would start to signal a more substantial decline underway.