Mid-day Update
Mid-day Update… Poles vaulting.
Increased Brexit support triggers slide.
Monday morning’s 2092.50 high was attacked to within 6 ticks. Any room for testing it up to 2094.50 has been rendered moot. A pro-Brexit poll result was released, triggering a plunge to 2084.25.
Back under 2087.00 was likely to test 2084.50. But back above 2087.50 was needed to reinstate the rally. Touching it reversed won to test 2080.50 and then 2076.50.
2080.50 is also this afternoon’s bias-down signal, and it triggered. The 2073.75 bias-down target is in-play. Its test should also visit the “unfinished business below” outstanding from yesterday at 2070.75.
We have no control over the headlines, let alone their timing. Regardless of any confidence in actually probing above Monday’s highs — which is less confident now, since the attraction up to Monday’s highs is mostly satisfied — don’t take any trending for granted .
Mid-day Update… News junkie.
Brexit headlines lacking, Yellen testimony pausing.
The reaction down from last night’s 2086.00 high extended down to 2074.00 intraday. That retested the overnight low, barely, Reacting up to probe 2082.00 reacted down 6 points. Reacting up again to attack 2082.00 reacted down only 3 points.
The first probe was retraced back under this morning’s 2080.50 bias-up signal before the bias environment began lapsing. That was close. But an offsetting test of this morning’s 2070.75 bias-down signal has become “unfinished business below” that requires eventual test.
Rallying first would target no only the overnight highs, but yesterday morning’s 2092.50 high. Otherwise, this morning’s low is very unlikely to hold a retest.
Mid-day Update… The other side of up.
Fresh post-open lows coming out of the noon hour.
Reacting down from 2092.50 never recovered. The 2084.50 opening print was retested, and held as support through the noon hour. Bouncing up to 2087.00 as the noon hour was ending had an opportunity to retest the highs.
But that was short-lived. Reacting down from 2087.00 probed a fresh post-open low — and the pre-open low, for that matter — down to 2082.00. The Pound suddenly collapsed simultaneously, so perhaps news is forthcoming on Brexit. Anxiousness ahead of Yellen’s testimony tomorrow could also be undermining the rally effort.
Regardless, the 2080.50 bias-down signal wasn’t touched, let alone triggered. This is a no-bias environment. Probing lower anyway would likely be recovered. Meanwhile, there is more room for noise to test this afternoon’s 2088.75 bias-up signal.
Mid-day Update… Up the down staircase.
Late bias-up tries undermining bearish WedEX.
This morning’s dip to attack 2053.00 was retraced back up to 2062.50 through noon. Its reaction down to 2056.00 was recovered entirely. During that recovery, bias-up signaled.
Bias-up signaled late, so its 2066.00 bias-up target isn’t required to be met. The bearish WedEX influence can absorb the target’s test and reverse down before the close. The bias-up itself can be invalidated by exiting the bias environment under the afternoon’s 2056.00 low.
Fresh afternoon highs would make the bias-up target likely to be met, regardless of its resolution. But back under 2058.75 would start giving the bearish WedEx more credibility than the bullish bias-up.
Mid-day Update… Dry grass, meet lit match.
News greets decline’s target, corrective bounce ensues.
The decline’s 2043.00 target was identified originally while the rally was still topping at 2110.00. Potential for bottoming at 2063.50 was all but dismissed Tuesday.
Gapping down today made 2043.00 likely to be tested this morning.
And it was, down to 2040.75. But that doesn’t equate to being a bottom.
A bottom might have formed around 2043.00. Isolating its test to one timing window, retesting it during another, and recovering to close above the morning’s 2054.00 high.
Still possible. But more difficult.
Tragic news surrounding Brexit triggered expectations for delaying next week’s vote. That wouldn’t be bearish. Its rumors were like throwing a lit match into the thick forest of selling pressures, which had dried out when its target was met
The 2053.00-2054.00 open was being tested at the bias environment’s exit. The noon hour filled the gap back up to yesterday’s 2062.75 cash session close. Consolidating back down to the 2058.00 bias-up target held and the bias-up signal has been renewed.
If the recovery extends higher today, let alone tomorrow morning — entirely possible, especially with bias-up renewed — then it would be at the expense of forming a durable bottom. Not retesting 2043.00 today would make its future retest less and less likely to hold.