Mid-day Update
Mid-day Update… Clawing at the walls.
Trying to escape the trend’s lower lows.
The noon hour’s bounce from 2055.00 to 2066.00 couldn’t maintain its probe above this afternoon’s 2062.00 bias-up signal. In the morning, this setup would have put into play an offsetting test of the 2056.50 bias-down signal.
The afternoon doesn’t require it. The no-bias environment still has room down to 2056.50. But price only continues hovering under 2062.00.
Back above 2063.75 would suggest another fresh session high underway, regardless of it originating during a no-bias environment. Meanwhile, fresh session lows remain likely.
Mid-day Update… Slow-playing the upside.
No-bias signal’s reward rescinded.
Holding a test of the 2082.00 bias-down signal through 10:!5 had put into play an offsetting test of the 2093.00 bias-up signal. Exiting the bias environment back under 2082.00 would have invalidated the reward for originally having held it. Otherwise, 2093.00 would become “unfinished business above.”
But fresh highs were probed after 10:15. Now sponsorship was attracted. Invalidating the reward would now require not only waning sponsorship, but also greater counter-trend sponsorship. And that would be signaled by exiting the bias environment under the open’s 2078.50 low.
The bias environment started lapsing at 11:30 from above 2082.00. But the noon hour was entered at fresh session lows testing 2076.00. The 2093.00 objective is NOT “unfinished business above.”
That’s not bullish, but neither is it necessarily bearish. The likelier bearish templates would have retaken control this morning. This probe can still be absorbed. If it’s not, then the decline unfolding from last week’s highs remains intact, and pointed sharply lower.
Mid-day Update… TBIF.
Fewer chances to avoid capitulation, this being a Friday.
Potential for bouncing back up to 2093.50 bias-down target was fulfilled. Its test originated from the re-test of of this morning’s 2086.50 renewed bias-down target.
As described during the pre-market Tour, the most bearish template would do its best portray stability, if not a bottom.
But being a bias-down environment, and so long as the bias-down target wasn’t recovered, that would be sponsored only by weak-handed buyers.
Also described during the Tour was the likelihood for an afternoon capitulation. (Not necessarily collapse, although that would be the next degree.) The noon hour has probed fresh session lows down to 2085.50, which invalidates the interim bounce. But that has created the basis for a Lunch Hour Reversal setup.
The Lunch Hour Reversal setup enters the noon hour of a down day above the open’s lows, and then isolates a fresh session low to the noon hour to suggest that its sellers are weak-handed.
Today’s noon hour was entered at 2091.00. So, the setup would complete by exiting the noon hour back above 2091.00. The balance of the afternoon need not get back on the chairlift, but simply get off the downhill slopes. Get a hot chocolate. Enjoy the view.
The noon hour’s low has reacted up 4 points. That’s still a couple of points short of 2091.00. Just recovering this afternoon’s 2088.00 bias-down signal in time to avoid triggering it would not qualify for the setup. Late afternoon would still be vulnerable to capitulating. Otherwise, the bounce could extend up to 2098.00.
Mid-day Update… Pegged.
Now the upside is being weighed down.
Rallying this morning was already doomed to failure for being premature, since yesterday’s rally had gained no traction for its effort. Attacking 2119.00 did retrace entirely back down to yesterday’s 2111.25 futures close. But no lower.
Meanwhile, this morning’s no-bias signal was not invalidated. The offsetting test of its 2106.50 bias-down signal has become “unfinished business below.” This is extra ballast, on a leaking helium balloon.
Bouncing since exiting the bias environment has tested this afternoon’s 2117.50 bias-up signal. It wasn’t triggered, but it could be probed and still be vulnerable to reversing down this afternoon… like this morning.
Mid-day Update… Icarus is jealous.
Weak base, premature rally, targets met, noN-bias. What’s the hold up?
Complexity associated with last night’s 2116.25 high required its intraday retest, which is done often the same day. It was met this morning as the bias environment began lapsing.
Also met is this morning’s 2117.00 bias-up target. Its test has room for noise up to 2119.00, and a higher objective would be in-play at 2125.25. The 1:20-1:30 bias timing window didn’t confirm momentum remains intact, since its 2017.25 bias-up signal was still being tested to trigger noN-bias.
So, two influences are competing against each other. Nothing will alter that this morning’s rally originated from a weak foundation. Meanwhile, the post-open uptrend of higher highs and higher lows remains intact. Upside momentum can’t afford to lapse after having neutralized upside attractions, because its first stumble could be its last.