Mid-day Update

Still in negative territory, with a window opening.

This morning’s 2071.50 bias-down target defined the morning’s lower-end. Hovering just above it for an hour before a blip-down fulfilled it down to 2071.00, reacting up sharply to test 2076.00.

Another elapsed before extending higher to test the afternoon’s 2079.50 bias-up signal, but that held. And the bias environment has drifted back down to test 2076.00.

Now the bias environment is lapsing. Since a fresh afternoon high would be part of a return into positive territory, and limited time remains, any credible recovery would be very aggressive, and very product, targeting a probe above 2086.00. Otherwise, the balance of the afternoon may continue drifting, to 2074.25 and lower.

Bias-down target held as support.

We can’t control the timing of headlines. Or of rumors. Or of whatever it was that triggered this morning’s late break under the 2081.75 bias-down signal — let alone the opening rally’s rejection from 2089.00.

The 2081.75 bias-down signal had held already through 10:15 to put into play an offsetting test of this morning’s 2092.00 bias-up signal. The 2081.75 bias-down signal had held already through 10:30 to avoid invalidating what was signaled at 10:15.

That didn’t prevent its break soon after. But if that break were sponsored by strong hands, then it should have been underway already. Alternatively, strong hands would extend that break through the 2075.50 bias-down target through 11:30.

2075.50 was tested, and the test held. So, that wasn’t strong hands sponsoring the morning’s drop to it. The 2092.00 objective now becomes “unfinished business above.” We still can’t control the path there, since oversold RSIs at the low require its retest. But extending down to 2067.00 won’t be done by strong hands, requiring its eventual recovery.

Probing lower and lower lows.

This morning’s 2093.00 bias-down signal officially triggered late. Recovering it at 10:30 would have invalidated it, but that was missed by 1 tick. And by 1 minute. A bounce tested 2097.50.

But the decline resumed, and this afternoon’s 2089.75 bias-down signal triggered late. Unlike this morning, fresh lows were confirming it at 10:30.

Yesterday’s “unfinished business below” at 2088.25 has been met. This morning’s 2087.50 bias-down target has been met. And now this afternoon’s 2082.75 bias-down target is in-play.

No-bias objective is cut short by OPEC rumors.

Repeatedly testing this morning’s 2096.25 bias-up signal prevented it from triggering. That put into play an offsetting test of the 2088.25 bias-down signal. It was attacked down to 2089.50.

The objective was attacked, and it likely would have been probed back down to and through yesterday’s lows. But then the OPEC rumor hit, taking Crude higher and ES to fresh session highs at 2100.50.

Unfortunately, I had no buy signal working, and other than violating the drop’s bounce limit above 2091.25, I didn’t participate in the surge.

Testing 2100.00-2101.00 at the open would have been bullish. Yesterday’s buyers gained no traction, so resuming the rally before late-afternoon had to begin abruptly and aggressively. Delaying the test of 2100.00-2101.00 is not bullish. Its test just reacted down to 2097.00, and any deeper would reinstate the morning’s decline.

Otherwise, back above 2099.75 and 2101.00 could trigger bias-up, but fresh highs would still be much more vulnerable to reversing back down before the final hour.

WedEX is done, no matter how aggressive its product.

The bullish WedEX’s influence on this morning is obvious. Recovering from a deep gap down is irrelevant. But rallying 18 points from 2066.00-2084.00 still doesn’t reflect the rally’s strength. Its buy signal at 2068.25 didn’t violate a pullback limit before touching 2087.00 during the noon hour.

Pullback limits were tested, but never probed deeper than their first 3 minutes. Even the mid-morning Symmetrical Triangle that broke falsely down was still so shallow that its pullback limit held before reversing back up more substantially.

The bullish WedEX’s influence is done. It would have no predictive value by having been any more or less aggressive and productive. But the morning’s singular sponsorship is very revealing. It suggests that reacting down would be only temporary, and recovered by a new upleg with greater measurements than this morning’s upleg.

One caveat is that this morning’s rally must not be rejected by the close. Probing above Thursday’s 2079.75-2081.75 highs must hold as support. Closing in negative territory back under 2073.50-2074.75 would reverse momentum down. Overbought RSIs at the noon hour’s high don’t require a retest, but that does make reversing down more difficult.