Mid-day Update

Hovering above prior highs would satisfy objectives.

The post-open dip to 2064.00 had been recovered to the open’s 2070.50 high. A break higher as the morning’s bias environment began lapsing extended to 2073.75. Dipping into the noon hour consolidated between 2068.00-2071.00, triggering no-bias.

The high’s RSIs aren’t entirely overbought to require its retest. But ranging narrowly sideways through the close isn’t as likely as printing fresh highs — targeting 2074.25-2075.00. Perhaps the Beige Book release at 2:00 would be a catalyst.

Dipping back down into the range could still fulfill the “unfinished business above” of a new trend high close. Preferably, that close would be above the opening range’s 2070.50 high, since the open’s range was overlapping the prior high.

The rally might extend even higher, but it wouldn’t be required. This isn’t a Friday, but exiting the afternoon’s bias environment above prior timing window’s highs (i.e. 2073.75) would be bullish. Reacting down from Beige Book would still be likelier to recover.

Week of reversals continues.

Maintaining the gap up above 2046.00 was rewarded by extending to fresh highs. Delaying that extension had made me suspicious of the ability to maintain fresh highs.

They weren’t.

Reacting down from 2054.25 through 2048.25 has extended down to 2040.00. The morning’s bias environment finished lapsing under the open’s range. The burden of proof has shifted back to buyers.

Fro the same reason that the week’s ongoing reversals that raised suspicions about the recovery, it should not increase confidence in its reversal. Entering the afternoon back above the 2046.00-2049.00 opening range could be squeezed higher through the close.

Otherwise, plenty of “unfinished business below” and other attractions can keep the afternoon occupied. Trending under Thursday’s 2026.00 low is still a possibility.

Unfinished business neutralized, exceeded.

Wednesday morning’s 2044.50 bias-up signal was probed during a no-bias environment. Despite extending up to 2062.00 overnight, the requirement to retest 2044.50 was neutralized this morning.

Yesterday morning’s 10:15 print at 2039.00 didn’t require a test, but it’s often retested after no-bias trending is extended. Its attraction was neutralized this morning, too.

Yesterday morning’s bounce up to 2044.50 had been put into play by holding a test of the morning’s 2035.75 bias-down signal. That happens also to be the noon hour low.

And now fresh lows are probing the noon hour low. And yesterday’s low, and Tuesday’s 2034.25 prior low, to 1 point under 2032.50. That’s this afternoon’s bias-down target.

Exiting the bias environment at 2:30 under the 2032.50 bias-down target would negate the “no-bias trending” that would otherwise be required to retest the 2038.00 bias-down signal.

Oversold RSIs at 2031.50 would require its retest in case of a bounce. The next lower objectives are 2021.00-2022.00 and potentially 2008.00-2009.00.

Substantial rally fulfills its upside.

Recovering 2038.50 after twice probing fresh lows post-open had suggested a substantial morning-long rally would develop. This being a Friday, the morning’s bias is likely to extend into the afternoon.

The morning’s late bias-down signal contradicted the bullish scenario. But the requirement to retest this morning’s 2048.75 bias-down signal can become “unfinished business below.” And it has.

Meanwhile, a noon hour pullback fulfilled its minimum objective at 2050.50. Its recovery has extended to fresh session highs at 2058.50 and triggered late bias-up. The 2061.25 bias-up target is in-play.

Well off the high, but still in positive territory.

Each probe above 2061.25 this morning was only brief, once touching 2064.50. That one was too much, and it reacted down to fresh post-open lows attacking 2054.25. Extending down during the noon hour is now attacking 2052.00.

Two hours of relentless selling, and 12 points off the high. Seems bearish.

But that’s still 1 point above the afternoon’s bias-down signal, and 5 points in positive territory.

Bias-down didn’t trigger. Maybe it will be probed anyway, which would be “no-bias trending” that requires being retraced. Waiting an hour before probing lower would target 2039.25. Otherwise, back above 2056.25 would start putting into play fresh session highs.