Mid-day Update

Attacking Friday’s pre-open high.

Testing and holding the 1946.00 bias-up target through 10:15 often identifies the morning’s peak. Not always. It’s still a bias-up environment, so not renewing the signal doesn’t prevent extending higher anyway.

And extending higher was likely. In fact, the 1951.00 renewed bias-up target was exceeded back to yesterday’s 1956.00 high, and a pullback there resolved up to attack Friday’s 1968.75 pre-open high.

Stopping 3 ticks short of touching 1968.75 is pessimistically short. That’s potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective, which keeps alive the upside. The next higher objective is not very far above at 1971.00 (+/-, probably +).

The base that launched this morning’s rally may be more productive than yesterday’s. But it’s no more durable. This afternoon remains as vulnerable as yesterday to trending back down.

Basing resolves up before laying solid groundwork.

Not gapping down had already indicated strong-handed sellers weren’t retaking control this morning. Fresh lows became likelier as buyers further delayed retaking control, too.

The no-bias environment still had room up to its 1953.00 bias-up signal, so long as that defined the range’s upper-end. But its test wasn’t required, and wasn’t even likely.

1953.00 was tested, anyway. Breaking higher well after the open gravitated up to 1952.00, and then surged to 1956.00. The bias environment exit is fluctuating narrowly around 1953.00.

Not gapping down kept the market in Friday’s orbit, attracted back to Friday’s highs and higher. Its 1952.00-1953.00 resistance is now neutralized. Fresh highs would all but target at least 1960.00, if not also fresh highs above 1969.00.

Back under this morning’s 1945.00 open would signal the bounce had ended already.

Morning’s range chips away at yesterday’s highs.

The 1960.00 opening gap up trended down through the first hour to attack 1949.00. That pierced yesterday’s 1949.50 high, which also equates to its cash session close.

A bounce to 1959.00 resolved in a fresh low testing 1948.00. But the noon hour’s entry was still overlapping 1952.00-1953.00 — neither recovering its test as support, nor rejecting it.

Entering the bias environment above or below 1952.00-1953.00 would still likely trend in that direction. Trending up would likely drift higher into the close, probably probing the 1968.75 overnight high. Trending down would likely be steep and deep.

Currently, the noon hour’s bounce has been ranging narrowly around 1952.00-1953.00. And now that the noon hour is 61.8% elapsed, a resolution should become obvious soon.

Finally probing the open’s highs.

The morning’s bias environment exit was probing a couple of prior relative highs, but not yet recovering the open’s surge. That would have been a more bullish setup.

The afternoon’s 1934.25 bias-up signal was attacked to within 1 tick during the 3 minutes either way of the 1:20 timing window. That would have been more bullish, too.

1934.25 was being pierced at 1:30 to essentially invalidate the no-bias environment. A little more decisively would have been a lot more bullish.

None of which has prevented extending anyway back through the overnight high to touch the 1939.75 bias-up target. If not for the market’s ongoing bullish context, we might not be participating in this afternoon’s move.

Plenty of room to the upside.

Extending down overnight was already stretching the correction scenario. Extending down this morning jeopardized recovering altogether.

Extending down to 1890.00 helped to restart the recovery potential. Bouncing back to 1898.00 helped to seal a bottom. Exiting the bias environment probing fresh highs made it formal.

Now after ranging around the afternoon’s 1905.00 bias-up signal, the afternoon’s noN-bias environment is breaking higher. The 1914.00 lower-prior high that could have ended the overnight slide is now being tested as resistance.

Exiting the bias environment in rally mode could recover the balance of yesterday’s drop before today’s close. Pullbacks holding 1909.50 would remain likely to extend the recovery. Back under 1905.00 would start to suggest otherwise.