Mid-day Update

lede .

This morning’s bias environment was exited above its 1907.00 bias-down signal. Being a late no-bias that rejected tests of both bias-down parameters, that exit keeps alive potential for offsetting tests of this morning’s 1920.00 and 1926.50 bias-up parameters.

In fact, the bias environment exit touched 1916.00. The afternoon no-bias bias environment ranged sideways, 2-3 points either way around 1911.00-1912.00, almost exclusively in negative territory.

Now the afternoon bias environment is lapsing. Its late bounce to 1914.50 has reacted down to the range’s 1909.50 lower-end. This dip must be reversed back up above 1911.00-1912.00 and higher into the final hour if WedEX’s bullish influence is intact. Fresh afternoon lows into the final hour would be difficult to recover today.

Still probing fresh session lows.

The morning’s attack on 1912.00 had originated during a no-bias environment. That’s “no-bias trending” which requires bouncing to at least test its 1916.50 bias-down signal. In fact, the bounce tested the 10:15 print at 1922.00.

Now a break lower has probed a fresh low at 1911.50. Oversold RSIs there suggest its reaction will fail — at least to retest 1911.50, and perhaps extending the decline to 1909.00 or even to 1898.00.

Back above 1916.50 would suggest a bigger bounce underway anyway. But otherwise today remains most vulnerable to backing-and-filling.

Is bullish FOMC news already reflected?

Potential to 1920.00 was fulfilled before a sell signal could trigger, even if only for a corrective dip. Consolidating back down to 1917.00 resolved up to 1924.50.

Now the afternoon’s 1923.25 bias-up signal has been overlapped to signal noN-bias. No higher target is in-play, and no required afternoon range — although noN-bias does tend to hold the bias signal anyway.

That may be the case now, ahead of this afternoon’s FOMC Minutes. Dipping ahead of the news is testing 1920.00 as support. Apart from retesting the highs as a knee-jerk reaction to the news, no higher objective is in-play. And a lot of optimism is reflected in this morning’s rallly.

Post-open dip recovered and reversed.

Nothing about the opening dips suggested that their sponsorship was strong-handed. That doesn’t prevent dipping, but the recovery tends to be aggressive. And it was.

Testing this morning’s 1871.50 pullback limit launched a reversal that probed fresh session highs at 1887.00 going into the noon hour. That was extended up to 1891.50 coming out off the noon hour.

Exiting the bias environment at 2:30 above 1891.50 would essentially marginalize sellers for the day. Fresh highs targeting 1907.00 and potentially 1920.00 would be in-play.

Back under 1886.00 would start to signal no further upside for today, and potentially a slide to the 1873.00 area.

Post-open bounce didn’t gain any traction.

Surging to within 1 point of the 1834.50 bounce potential didn’t prevent exiting the bias environment 11 points under the 1818.50 open. That was a test of the critical 1807.50 level whose break through the open would have resumed the decline.

It still might.

Bouncing to retest 1818.50 held. Exceeding it would have targeting 1825.25, whose recovery could target new session highs at 1850.00 and higher.

Meanwhile, a reaction down is testing 1811.50. It might hold, too. But exceeding it would target the 1797.25 area. And any lower (which would then be likely) would resume the decline.

PROGRAMMING NOTE: I’m changing locations which should have a positive impact on bandwidth, which has suffered this morning in the chaRTroom.