Mid-day Update

Bias-down target met, held, and reacted.

[This morning’s pre-market Tour recording file was incorrect. I had updated its link in the blog post and sent a follow-up post which I’m hearing some did not receive. If you’re among them and interested, then here is the Tour.]

THE POST-MARKET WRAP WILL BEGIN 15 MINUTES BEFORE THE CLOSE AT 3:45 ET.

Reacting down from this morning’s test of the 1856.50 bias-up target fell all the way to the 1834.50 bias-down target. Its recovering into the bias environment exit tested 1851.00.

Not volatile enough? Sliding from there into and out of the noon hour triggered the afternoon’s 1834.50 bias-down target and met its 1829.25 bias-down target (to within 1 tick). And despite this still being a bias-down environment, probing above its bias-down signal just touched 1848.00.

As suspected this morning, today’s market has no interest in sitting still, and it has a wide range to do it. But it is not trending. It is neither extending yesterday’s decline nor is it reversing up.

One theory being mentioned in the chaRTroom is Yellen’s congressional testimony tomorrow. Regardless, the bias environment is now within view of lapsing 10-15 minutes from now. Extending to either end of today’s range would have a better chance at trending through it.

Bouncing into the noon hour lacks isn’t terribly credible.

The 1925.75 objective was attacked to within 1 point at this morning’s lows. That’s 1 tick further away than would qualify as being satisfied.

3-minute RSI was on the cusp of being oversold, and 1-minute RSI was at least a little oversold, so retesting the low can’t be discounted.

An 8-point bounce fell back to almost touch the low, but now a 10-point bounce into the noon hour is touching this afternoon’s 1840.00 bias-up signal. The bias-up target is still well into negative territory. And nothing requires the low to hold a retest.

Greeting the weekend from a position of weakness.

This morning’s slide through the 1886.00 objective came within 1 tick of its 1873.75 objective. Bouncing into the noon hour retested 1886.00 as resistance before reacting down again.

The 1877.00 bias-down signal was tested but not triggered. That didn’t prevent probing fresh lows, but the “no-bias trending” had to retrace 1877.00.

1877.00 was retraced, but that was at the top of the hour. Rather than wait around for the bias environment to begin lapsing, fresh lows are now testing 1868.50.

The next lower objective is a retest of Wednesday’s 1865.00 low down to 1862.75. This leg could accomplish that, so long as bounce limits hold. A more reliable downleg would first retest the 1877.00 bias-down signal.

Bouncing from fresh session lows.

This morning’s range was essentially centered around 1904.50. A late recovery effort twice tested 1911.00, but collapsed to new lows at noon. Its drop to 1896.75 has been retraced to 1904.50.

That’s beyond optimal for maintaining the decline’s momentum. So, resuming the decline should be aggressive and pretty soon. Otherwise, bouncing any higher could isolate the probe under this morning’s lows, while reversing momentum up.

Bottoming here could bounce to 1913.00 and 1924.00. Lower lows would likely test “lower prior highs” just under 1890.00. Extending under 1886.00 could soon test 1869.00. .

Price keeps returning to relevant support.

This morning’ s 1922.00 bias-down signal held the open’s bounce, then it held the recovery from fresh lows. Probing above it came after triggering bias-down.

Probes above 1922.00 were retraced as the bias-down signal defined the bias-down environment’s upper-end. Those probes got to 1924.00, 1926.00 and almost 1929.00. Each probe was retraced to 1922.00 — and lower during the noon hour, attacking 1918.00.

All while still ranging around 1922.00.

Attacking this morning’s lows would likely extend back into last week’s range under 1909.00. The afternoon’s no-bias environment could otherwise bounce to test its 1931.50 bias-up signal without trending.