Mid-day Update

Bouncing out of the noon hour.

The post-open ranging had expended a lot of energy up to 2022.00.  It succeeded in preventing the overnight decline from following-through under 2012.00.

A surge tested 2025.00, too late to have a bullish impact. Instead, it stretched the rubber band, which snapped back down to 2003.75 at the noon hour’s low.

Coming within 3 ticks of the 2003.00 bias-down target no longer requires its test. It would not become “unfinished business below” if left outstanding.

If it is signaled. Actually, it did barely. The 2009.50 bias-down signal WAs being overlapped within 3 minutes of the 1:20 bias timing window to invoke the grace period . It wasn’t recovered through 1:30, so this is a late bias-down environment.

The trek to fresh lows remains intact. Nothing prevents trending under the 2003.00 target. Exiting the bias environment under it could prevent recovering.

Morning rally’s retracement still has a margin of comfort.

This morning’s 2046.50 bias-up target was put back into play by the late bias-up signal. Its test was likely to visit 2048.00, which it did, on the way to 2054.25.

As quickly as the bias signal probed higher, it has taken four times as long to retrace back down to this morning’s 2040.75 bias-up signal. And there’s no assurance of reversing back down through it.

There’s still time — time, and recent volatility — to retest yesterday’s ~2027.00 lows down to 2022.50 and still recover. But closing today under 2040.00 would confirm yesterday’s simultaneous break under both it and 2052.00 (2048 and 2060 basis Dec).  Closing today above 2052.00 would end the recent decline.

DON’T FORGET: I’m away today between 1:30 – 3:15 ET.

A runaway rally this morning wasn’t likely. The immediate surge’s template did kick-in, and it was very productive. The 2050.00 pre-open low rallied 30 points to attack 2080.00.

None of which changed that the origin’s timing was early. Again. Yesterday’s was late and this morning’s was early. Both were retraced entirely.

Actually, this morning’s doomed rally was reversed.

Besides its timing, this morning’s rally was doomed for originating above 2048.00. Now, without ever having put into play 2048.00, its break has extended down to with 3 ticks of the next lower support of 2035.00.

That low was met with the noon hour having elapsed 61.8%. Reversals there and then tend to hold. That is, they tend to hold a retest, especially if RSIs were to diverge positively. Already attacking 2044.00, a bounce has room up to 2048.00. Not holding the low’s retest — down to 2030.50 — would next target 2027.00 and 2022.00.

Big recovery attempt stops short of gaining traction.

As the open’s volatility warned, this morning’s price action would not trend. The opening hour’s fluctuation touched 2062.00 at its high, before reversing back down to fresh lows at 2050.25. Despite surging up to 2073.25, the noon hour was entered back at 2062.00.

So, potential down to 2048.00 remains alive — not in-play at the moment. But dipping back into the open’s range would all but ensure probing a fresh low, presumably down to 2048.00.

Resuming the rally and triggering this afternoon’s bias-up signal still wouldn’t invalidate the potential downside. But the potential downside remains a vulnerability otherwise.

Correction objective met, leading to consolidation.

This morning’s 2074.50 bias-down target was tested before bias-down was signaled. It was soon met, with plenty of time remaining in the bias-down environment.

More substantial corrective target attracted price down. The 2065.00 target was pierced by 2 ticks at the 11:30 bias environment exit. Its test reacted up 10 points to 2074.50 before noon.

It’s likely that the correction is fulfilled. But that doesn’t necessarily equate to reversing back up immediately. At least one timing window can be spent “backing-and-filling” or forming a more comprehensive pattern. Of course, a negative news headline could exacerbate the pullback, but not necessarily.

Backing-and-filling is simply vulnerable to becoming another downleg. Back above 2070.50 would launch a recovery. Meanwhile, this afternoon’s 2067.75 bias-down signal is now being tested down to 2066.00.