Mid-day Update… Will lightning strike twice?
Morning rally’s retracement still has a margin of comfort.
This morning’s 2046.50 bias-up target was put back into play by the late bias-up signal. Its test was likely to visit 2048.00, which it did, on the way to 2054.25.
As quickly as the bias signal probed higher, it has taken four times as long to retrace back down to this morning’s 2040.75 bias-up signal. And there’s no assurance of reversing back down through it.
There’s still time — time, and recent volatility — to retest yesterday’s ~2027.00 lows down to 2022.50 and still recover. But closing today under 2040.00 would confirm yesterday’s simultaneous break under both it and 2052.00 (2048 and 2060 basis Dec). Closing today above 2052.00 would end the recent decline.
Haven’t seen any mention of OB RSIs being a relevant attraction for a retest of the highs. Is there some reason why OB RSIs aren’t a factor today?
No. But they’re never a timing tool. Any downside was likely to be only temporary, for many reasons, among them being the overbought RSIs that would be left outstanding.
1) Since today’s high is a test of the 61.8 retracement of yesterday’s down leg, would a close above today’s highs indicate that the downside is done (for now)?
2) Since “any downside [today] was likely to be only temporary…”, does the fact that the downside test was delayed, connote bearishness?