Mid-day Update

Wide swings persist.

This morning’s 2062.75 bias-down target is “unfinished business below.” Exiting the bias environment above its 2068.00 bias-down signal could have invalidated the signal. But despite probing it by 4 points, the bias environment’s exit was probing under 2068.00.

An even larger rally is possible, regardless of the attraction below. It’s just less likely, and unlikely to extend. But that’s no reason to short strength.

Regardless, the open’s wide swings persisted through the morning, and still imply the same expectation: That finally neutralizing the attraction below will produce a substantial rally.

Morning’s slide hasn’t resumed.

The decline’s potential to 2064.50 was fulfilled down to 2062.00. Bouncing there through the noon hour touched this afternoon’s 2070.50 bias-up signal.

The signal’s touch pushed back.

Dipping back down to 2064.50 has avoided triggering bias-up signal. The 2060.50 bias-down signal isn’t triggering, and its offsetting test isn’t required during the afternoon.

But the level is relevant support. And exiting the bias environment under it would be likely to trend down for awhile. An afternoon recovery would be difficult if the bias environment isn’t already chipping away at the resistance of its 2070.50 bias-up signal.

Decline absorbed, but not rejected.

No-bias trending often retraces not only the bias signal, but the level printed at 10:15. That was 2095.00, and it was tested into the noon hour.

Flat-to-higher ranging since then tested this afternoon’s 2097.50 bias-up signal. But it didn’t trigger. Now 2095.00 is being probed down to 2093.00.

Could this lack of direction be foreshadowing price action for the rest of the session? Employment Situation report is tomorrow morning, and anxiousness ahead of it often paralyzes trending attempts.

For now, the 2095.00 bias-up signal held its test, leaving room to gravitate down to the 2089.75 bias-down signal.

No-bias, no-bias trending, and trapping weak-handed shorts.

The open’s test of the 2099.00 bias-down signal held, triggering no-bias at 10:15. An offsetting test of the 2106.75 bias-up signal was put into play — but not as a requirement, since it had been tested already at the open.

A bounce only tested 2105.00 before dipping back to the lows. And through them to the morning’s 2093.50 bias-down target. Being a no-bias environment, that was “no-bias trending,” requiring its retracement back up to the 2099.00 bias-down signal. Its attraction above has been neutralized. But not recovered.

Even if we knew with 100% certainty that this morning’s sellers were weak-handed, we would not be assured of when or where a recovery would begin. And we do know this morning’s sellers were weak-handed, holding the bias-down signal instead of triggering it, probing under it later and still recovering.

But we don’t know that with 100% certainty, or if the entrenched rally intends to rest on its laurels more deeply before recovering. Unless bias-up is triggered, lower lows may yet be probed.

Probing fresh highs just short of a signal.

This afternoon’s 2103.50 bias-up signal was touched within 3 minutes of the 1:20 bias timing window. The grace period through 1:30 was invoked. And 2103.50 was still being overlapped.

This is a noN-bias environment. Not a bias-up with a specific higher target. Not a no-bias whose upper-end is likely to be defined by the bias-up signal.

Piercing higher to 2104.25 just 1 minute later makes no difference. Being a noN-bias, price can extend higher. But often a noN-bias environment is still restrained by its bias signal, similar to a no-bias.

Often, a noN-bias environment simply ranges narrowly at the bias signal. But this pattern only allows room down to 2100.50 before starting to signal momentum reversing down.

Yesterday’s traction was rewarded by this morning’s uptrend to a fresh high. Only one door remains open to rejecting yesterday’s close above 2088.00, which is to close back under 2088.00 today.