Mid-day Update

Bias-up target exceeded.

Exceeding this morning’s 2084.50 bias-up target through 10:15 would have renewed the bias-up signal. It wasn’t exceeded. It was still a bias-up environment and vulnerable to extending higher. But not likely.

In fact, higher and higher highs each reacted down, first to overlap 2084.50, and then to test it as support. Finally, it was attacked to within 2 ticks before entering the noon hour.

The bias environment has lapsed, and the noon hour is probing fresh highs up to 2090.00. Overbought RSIs are protecting against a durable reaction down. Anyway, o\ne more domino has yet to topple as described during the pre-open Tour — retesting Thursday night’s 2094.75 high.

Bias-down dissed, but not dismissed.

This morning’s 2080.50 bias-down signal triggered. The bias environment didn’t extend down any deeper than its pre-10:15 2077.50 low. Bouncing to 2080.50 at 1030 didn’t invalidate the bias-down

But the bias-down environment was never any more productive before it began lapsing, back at the 2080.50 signal. So, its 2075.50 bias-down target becomes “unfinished business below,” which requires being tested eventually.

None of which has prevented an interim rally that triggered the 2084.50 bias-up signal. And that has extended to fresh session highs testing 2088.00. The 2090.75 bias-up target is in-play, but there may be an air pocket under the 2084.00 area that slides to fresh session lows.

This being a Friday, the last timing window is more vulnerable to trending. Entering the final hour above 2088.00 could attack the 2095.00 overnight highs into the close.

Still probing higher ahead of FOMC.

This morning’s 2071.50 bias-up signal was met and exceeded up to 2074.75. Consolidating into the noon hour’s exit suddenly spiked up to a fresh high, which has been pierced up to 2076.00.

Meanwhile, RSIs have begun diverging negatively. So, avoiding a corrective dip all but requires extending the rally aggressively.

That upside path is being challenged by the impending FOMC effect that makes attracting new sponsorship difficult. A corrective dip down to 2065.25-2067.50 could help to ensure a favorable reaction back up.  Otherwise, extending higher at all could stumble and reverse down at its first hesitation.

Bias-down target still holding, still not rejected.

Actually, this morning’s 2053.50 bias-down target’s test to within 1 tick did react up sharply. And a lot. All the way to 2063.75, which was last night’s high. And that reacted down sharply, too, also a lot. Back down to within 2 ticks of 2053.50.

Ranging relatively narrowly at the low has defined the noon hour. And soon the noon hour will begin lapsing. Recovering to trigger the afternoon’s 2061.00 bias-up signal would suggest fresh lows are off the table. Bounces otherwise should be limited to 2060.00.

Tomorrow afternoon’s FOMC policy statement is still far enough away that its influence is limited. Anxiousness ahead of today’s post-close AAPL earnings are probably more relevant. Potential down to Thursday’s “lower prior highs”around 2048.00 remains alive.

Ill-timed dips trap shorts.

Post-open bounces tried to resume the pre-open rally, but lower and lower highs kept returning to 2063.50 support. Its tests were mostly overlapped, or only briefly probed. But after holding two tests before 10:15, it had become too late for a reliable break lower.

Being unreliable didn’t preclude there being a break lower. It just made a break lower likely to recover. And being likely to recover didn’t limit how deep that hypothetical break could first probe.

7 points, actually.

The hypothetical late, temporary break probed 7 points under 2063.50 to attack 2056.50. It would have been credible for extending down — being a Friday, and being unusual action. Delaying the break would have been likelier to gain traction, but the premature break was likely to fail.

The consequence for an inappropriately timed break — which fails — is to retest the original leg’s origin. That would be a fresh session high around 2072.00. The afternoon’s no-bias environment is now ranging around its 2066.00 bias-up signal. Exiting the bias environment back under 2065.00 would be vulnerable to sliding anyway.