Mid-day Update

Still no counter-trend timing window.

This afternoon’s bias signal will trigger in more than a half-hour at 1:20. Its 2046.50 target is being tested now by more than 2 points. Entering the bias environment above its target would renew the bias-up signal. Continuing this behavior could fulfill the rally’s next higher objective at 2055.00 today.

Relentless trending is unusual. Also unusual is for the “session-long rally” setup to print fresh highs during the noon hour. One timing window should rest, if not also retrace. Now only two timing windows remain: the afternoon bias environment and the final hour.

Simultaneously overbought RSIs suggest that reacting down here would recover. A pullback during the bias environment would suggest that the final hour will probe new highs, and possibly trend up through the closing ticks. But a pullback and recovery BOTH during the bias environment would make the final hour vulnerable to reversing down.

Open’s drop recovers much.

This morning’s reaction up from 2018.50 made it to 2025.25 before reacting back down under 2022.00-2023.00 to resume the decline. But the decline didn’t actually resume. The low was attacked to within 3 ticks and then another bounce began.

This second bounce was much more productive, testing 2028.25. A Close-Quarters Double Top there has reacted down to attack 2025.00. Any lower would start to signal the bounce had ended. That would still be subject to confirmation, this being the noon hour, and having recovered well back into positive territory.

Otherwise, back above 2028.00 would start to confirm the detour is extending. Fulfilling objectives below would be delayed for a more substantial probe of fresh highs.

Offsetting test neutralized, and neutralizing.

Holding a test of this morning’s 2018.00 bias-down signal through 10:15 put into play an offsetting test of the 2026.50 bias-up signal.

Absorbing the initial probe of 4 points under 2018.00 didn’t require any greater reward. Neither did absorbing the 6-point dip back down to 2018.00.

However it is that 2026.50 came to be met, its attraction is now neutralized. Combined with filling the gap back to Friday’s close in that area, and with the noon hour beginning, a pullback is now testing 2021.50.

Fresh session highs visiting 2031.50 are likely so long as the afternoon’s bias-down signal doesn’t trigger. Only a temporary visit to 2031.50 is possible, followed by reversing down to sharply into the close. Regardless, there is no unfinished business above in-play.

Hovering in positive territory.

This morning’s choppy ranging wasn’t much different from the overnight action. Neither was it very rewarding to yesterday’s buyers for having gained traction. But fresh highs were probed, and positive territory was maintained throughout the morning.

It’s time for the bearish influences to make themselves apparent.

A bearish WedEX has been waiting in the wings, salivating at the rising prices. Its influence this afternoon need not be dramatic, and can simply force rally efforts to fail. This morning’s opening 15 minutes trended down, which also need not have a dramatic influence, but suggests the afternoon will print lower lows.

Between the two bearish influences, a flat-to-lower afternoon is likelier. An aggressive drop is possible. Yesterday’s 2017.00 cash session high is now being probed again. Back above 2020.50 would suggest fresh highs will be probed regardless.

Has the third consecutive morning surge rolled over, too?.

Tuesday’s gap down immediately launched a rally back above Monday’s highs, and still closed under the morning’s low. Wednesday’s flat open also immediately rallied, but ended the morning under the morning’s lows (and ended the session even lower).

Now comes this morning’s gap up. Extending higher post-open was not immediate, as much time was spent ranging around the 1993.50 bias-up signal. Finally extending higher did quickly fulfill its 1999.50 bias-up target. But almost as quickly price has returned to the open’s 1991.25 lows. And lower to 1989.50.

All of which is still in positive territory. Well into positive territory.

However, the bias environment was exited back under its fulfilled bias-up signal. That’s not in itself a signal, but it does suggest that another rally leg will require forming another pattern and triggering it.

Otherwise, probing under yesterday’s lows down to 1979.00-1980.00 remains possible. Recovering 1993.50 and triggering the 1995.50 bias-up could leave behind fresh lows until Friday afternoon.