Mid-day Update

Morning slide is retraced entirely.

The Globex-flip setup produced its minimum requirement, to produce bearish behavior through the morning. Exiting the open under the 2813.25 earlier Globex low collapsed 30 points down to 2783.25. It was already retraced 61.8% when the bias environment began lapsing at 11:30.

That should have held if the bearish influence were going to persist through tomorrow morning, too. Instead, extending higher through the noon hour has returned to the lower-end of the 2819.50-2823.00 bounce objective.

Just piercing the 2819.50-2823.00 lower-end would be likely to test its upper-end. And that would likely probe the 2814.00 overnight highs. All of which would make the next higher objective at 2838.00 likely. Perhaps the FOMC Minutes reaction will trigger that — anxiousness ahead of it is not.

So, avoiding fresh highs this afternoon would keep alive another downleg that resumes retracing and reversing yesterday’s rally. Even if originating from higher, that’s the likely resolution to having broken out of the multi-session Ascending Triangle.

Relentless intraday trending is good, complacency is not.

The morning bias environment eventually probed its 2783.25 pre-10:15 high to confirm its doubly renewed bias-up signal remained intact. The window lapsed at 2796.00, and the noon hour was exited slightly higher at 2797.50.

That’s this afternoon’s bias-up signal, and it was overlapped from 1:20 until 2 minuted prior to 1:30. That was just in time to trigger “late bias-up.” Extending higher has already touched this afternoon’s 2803.00 bias-up target.

This is still a bias-up environment, so the window can extend even higher to 2808.00. We’ll watch the bias environment’s exit for signals of any vulnerability to reversing down. There’s no requirement at this stage to resolve in either direction.

Morning bounce collapses, almost. Recovers, almost.

This morning’s 2751.75 bias-down target recovered back up through the 2769.75 open to attack 2775.00. That’s 23 points, which its 20-point reaction down almost retraced entirely.

And now this afternoon’s 2773.00 bias-up signal is being probed by fresh session highs to attack 2777.00. But it’s too late to trigger bias-up, so its test is likely to define this window’s upper-end.

Probing the 2773.00 bias-up signal during the no-bias environment requires being retraced, if not also reversed back down. But not necessarily today. Dipping back to 2773.00 when the bias window starts lapsing could resolve in either direction — reversing back down, or resuming the rally. Back under 2769.25 would start to signal the resolution is down.

Resuming the rally is possible, because a multi-session Ascending Triangle is forming. A false break higher is possible, and would target the 2800.00 area or higher, while still being likely to resolve down to new lows. Full-blown recovery is still not being considered.

As bearish as bullish… but not in a straight line.

Gapping up to yesterday afternoon’s 2777.00 bias environment high would have been bullish, if maintained. But it was barely touched before trending back down through the opening 15 minutes of volatility. That’s not a bullish behavior after gapping up to resistance.

As bullish as the setup would have been, it could be as bearish. And it has been pretty bearish.

The morning’s 2752.00 bias-down signal was tested before entering the noon hour. And that window extended down to within 1-2 ticks of yesterday’s 2732.00 cash session close equivalent. Already 10 points under this afternoon’s bias-down target, it reacted up 33 points to 2755.00.

Apparently that was an obligatory bounce. Now the 2742.25 bias-down target is being retested, after triggering late bias-down. It’s too late to renew the signal, but it’s still a bias-down environment, and otherwise free to extend the decline. It’s also under 2749.00, which probably breaks hard today if not recovered through the close.

Opening rally’s failure tests and holds relevant low.

The next lower objective after yesterday was “lower prior highs” at 2749.00. Its multiple tests overnight produced bounces to 2780.00 and 2799.00. And like earlier bounces, 2749.00 was retested again.

Did 2749.00 hold?

Testing and holding 2749.00 during the open would have formed a durable bottom. Isolating its test to the morning’s bias window is less optimal, but would have gotten a benefit of the doubt. Instead, the morning’s bias-down target was still being overlapped at noon. Trading decisively above 2749.00 would have been optimal, but it certainly wasn’t rejected decisively.

But, did 2749.00 hold?

The reaction extended up to 2787.50 during the noon hour. Bias-up wasn’t triggered, but neither was bias-down. Exiting the bias environment beyond either 2760.50-2791.00 signal would be likely to extend in that direction. Higher would be less optimal, but still credible. Otherwise, the decline is likely to resume, as early as today.