Mid-day Update

Noon hour ranging still stuck.

This morning’s plunge to 2837.50 bounced to 2850.00 during the noon hour, essentially ranging around 2844.00. The noon hour exit’s attempt to break lower attacked 2834.00 before snapping back up to attack 2850.00. Sort of warning sellers not to try that. The market often talks tougher than it is.

Nevertheless, the snap back up outlasted the 2838.75 bias-down signal to trigger no-bias. Probing under it now would be “no-bias trending” and require being retraced. Which the earlier rejection warned against.

But the pattern of a singular probe to fresh lows does not qualify as a bottom. The low should be retested, if not also probed down to 2830.00 or 2825.00. Delaying the probe until the bias environment lapses would allow the decline to avoid being retraced back up to 2838.75 before extending. Probing it now would be more easily recovered.

Wide swings reflect opinions being expressed.

The offsetting test of this morning’s 2899.50 bias-up signal was met very quickly after being put into play. An hour remaining in the bias window didn’t make the rally any likelier to extend higher, not when the no-bias environment is likelier to remain within its bias signals.

Reacting down 13 points to 2886.50 was recovered back up to within 2-3 ticks of 2899.50. But its 18-point reaction down was deeper to 2881.50.

Now a shallower recovery has triggered the afternoon’s 2890.25 bias-down signal. Its 2884.50 bias-down target is being retested now by 1 point.

Extending any lower would next target 2880.50 and 2877.50. And then yesterday’s 2866.00-2867.75 lows. And probably lower — which an afternoon drop would make likelier for being less capable of attracting counter-trend sponsorship.

Today is becoming a critical day for the decline’s momentum. Two prior sessions have recovered intraday dips, but too shallowly to reverse the trend back up. Today’s recovery probed a prior high, but hasn’t maintained it. If recent lows didn’t satisfy sellers and/or attract strong-handed accumulation, the the next area for both would be 2850.00.

Fresh lows holding.

Tests of both 2881.50 and 2888.00 bias-down parameters were tested and recovered through 10:15. The recovery extended to attack 2893.00, but no higher. In fact, momentum reversed down.

And down.

What could have been a temporary corrective pullback down to the 2881.50 bias-down target suddenly collapsed 15-16 points to 2866.00. The bias environment was exited under the bias-down target and under the open’s lows, invalidating the morning’s bias signal — and its upside attractions.

Ranging back up to 2875.00 barely avoided triggering bias-down under 2867.50. Although the drop hasn’t extended, it has persisted. This morning’s fresh lows could have been isolated by entering the noon hour above prior lows, but now isolation requires exiting the bias environment above a prior high, like 2884.50. Otherwise, the trend remains down.

Morning drop extending through the noon hour.

The post-open bounce up to 2915.50 had soon reversed its test of this morning’s 2911.00 bias-up signal. Not recovering it triggered no-bias. Its offsetting test of the morning’s 2900.25 bias-down signal was soon fulfilled.

Meanwhile, the morning’s no-bias environment had yet to lapse.

The bias-down signal should define the no-bias environment’s lower-end. That didn’t prevent the drop from probing lower anyway. It extended down to the morning’s 2893.75 bias-down target, whose break at the bias environment’s exit could have invalidated the retracement requirement. But 2893.75 was only tested.

Probing under this morning’s 2900.25 bias-down signal during the no-bias environment requires being retraced eventually. There’s no particular timing, and its “unfinished business” can remain outstanding indefinitely. Which could be awhile, because there’s nothing bullish about today’s pattern

Extending down through the noon hour has now triggered the afternoon’s 2877.75 bias-down signal’s break is triggering “late bias-down.” Its 2872.25 bias-down signal has been attacked already to within 4 ticks, so it won’t become “unfinished business” if left outstanding. Back above 2880.50 would start to signal momentum reversing up, but be careful, because the alternative could be a meltdown into the weekend.

Another bias-down renewed.

Entering the noon hour at fresh lows quickly extended down to touch the minimum objective for this entire downleg at 2901.00. That’s also this afternoon’s bias-down signal, and its reaction up to 2905.00 quickly failed. Fresh lows  barely pierced this afternoon’s 2894.00 bias-down target.

Another bounce attacked 2905.00, which failed again, and returned to 2894.00, again. This time, lower, in time to renew the afternoon’s bias-down signal, next targeting 2888.00.

RSIs are diverging positively into new session lows at 2890.50. Its the second positive divergence, so probing lower without first bouncing above the setup’s 2896.25 interim high would become vulnerable to essentially doubling today’s drop.

There’s otherwise no requirement to extend lower today. Meanwhile, exiting the bias environment back above 2901.00, or recovering 2905.00 into the final hour, would be the nearest signal that the decline had ended.