Mid-day Update

Fresh highs on a Friday, but only intraday.

Ahh, the memories. The probe above Tuesday’s 2874.00 prior high by 3 points has created potential for actually closing above prior highs. On a Friday. It has been quite a while since this was even possible. But it would essentially entrench the uptrend, and require at least another eventual higher close.

That’s a Friday Factor, and it’s otherwise irrelevant until the close. Even then, it could be followed Monday by a break lower — which we’d be confident would recover, because another higher close was outstanding.

Meanwhile, another Friday Factor has inadvertently hurt the chances for holding up above prior highs through the close. Friday morning bias signals tend to persist through the noon hour. That helped this morning’s rally extend to 2877.25, and now its sponsorship may be fulfilled. A reaction down to 2870.50.

And that jeopardizes the potential for closing higher, because of another Friday Factor. A trending day on Friday that exits the bias window above all prior intraday timing window highs become vulnerable to extending higher through the close. This dip currently underway makes that more difficult.

Still absorbing the opening rally’s failure.

Although this morning’s 2858.50 bias-down signal was last touched 3 minutes prior to the open, an offsetting test of its 2868.50 bias-up signal did develop.

Its room for noise up to 2869.50 was pierced by 1 tick as the rally peaked. Its reaction down had collapsed to 2855.00 as the bias window began lapsing at 11:30. The catalyst was apparently more China currency intervention.

Again, there’s no unfinished business above. Resistance that neutralizes buying pressure is being tested and held. And responsive.

None of which has resumed the reversal down. Not, yet. But this afternoon’s 2863.00 bias-up signal wasn’t even attacked. Another corrective bounce to 2866.00 could develop if the decline isn’t trying to resume when the afternoon bias window begins lapsing at 2:30.

Positive territory recovered, and so far, defended.

Holding a test of this morning’s 2857.75 bias-down signal through the open had put into play an offsetting test of the 2866.25 bias-up signal. And probably also 2867.25, potentially 2869.50. The bias-up signal was tested before the bias window began lapsing. Higher highs before noon probed 2 points higher.

Its reaction has dipped back to 2863.00-2863.50. Yesterday’s open and close, this morning’s opening high, and generally support. None of which means it will prevent another drop into negative territory.

My premise during the Market Tour was for this morning to bounce to 2867.25, and then possible launch a second downleg. There’s still no “unfinished business” above. So, not rallying when this afternoon’s bias window begins lapsing, would probably be because another downleg has already begun.

Opening surge’s correction resumes the rally.

The open’s surge to attack 2870.00  had room for a pullback down to 2864.00. Its test became likelier the longer a pullback was delayed without resuming the rally. Finally, the bias window began lapsing at 11:30 with a dip to 2864.00, satisfying the objective.

By noon, fresh highs were attacking 2872.00. The noon hour extended to 2874.00.

Which fulfilled this morning’s 2873.00 renewed bias-up target, although that wasn’t required. It’s also this afternoon’s bias-up signal, and didn’t trigger.

Meanwhile, the 2873.00 bias-up signal should define the no-bias window’s upper-end if tested (it’s being tested). Probing above it anyway would be “no-bias trending” that requires being retraced to at least 2873.00.

Just hovering at or around 2873.00 until the bias window begins lapsing at 2:30 would become likely to resume the rally. Its next higher resistance is 2879.25 with potential to 2883.00. Regardless, back under 2869.25 would start to signal momentum reversing down.

Sellers were absorbed, but buyers slow to be rewarded.

Sellers gained no traction for this morning’s efforts. Early strength to 2858.50 had stopped short of the 2860.00 overnight high. Its reaction bottomed upon filling the gap back down to Friday’s 2851.75 cash session close.

Positive territory contained the post-open downtrending. That’s the least qualification for the bullish WedEX, but the influence went further to attack or retest the open’s highs as the bias environment finished lapsing at noon.

Now WedEX has lapsed, so extending higher is the product of other influence. The obvious separate influence is the bias parameters, but this afternoon’s 2859.00 bias-up signal just avoided triggering.

Actually, 2859.00 is being pierced. Probing above it would be “no-bias trending” that requires being retraced before another upleg is credible. Slow-playing a break higher, or correcting it, would leave the final hour vulnerable to resuming the rally. There probably won’t be a sell signal nearer than 2855.00.