Mid-day Update

Morning rally not rejected.

This morning’s 2836.75 bias-down signal was still being tested at both 10:15 and 10:30 to trigger noN-bias. This often behaves like a no-bias without any objective in-play. This morning’s behaved as if the bias-down signal did hold its test cleanly, and rallied to within 1 tick of its 2848.50 bias-up signal.

A dip into the noon hour to 2842.25 is being probed by another point now, after already triggering no-bias for this afternoon. If also tested, the 2840.00 bias-down signal should define the window’s lower-end.

Back above 2844.25 would start to signal momentum reversing up. Similar to the bias-down signal’s constraint that I just described, there’s room up to the 2850.50 bias-up signal until the no-bias environment starts lapsing. The afternoon’s bullish WedEX can work with that.

Target area now being used as support.

The likely upside objective this morning was to fill the gap back up to Tuesday’s 2841.00 close. The likely resolution was to extend almost relentlessly and probe the 2843.50 upper-end of Tuesday’s late consolidation that contained that gap. Finally, expending so much energy to exceed so much resistance was likely to correct back down.

That initially relentless upside’s objective? 2844.50-2846.00. But testing it as resistance only consolidated, and then surged higher to attack 2852.00. But the pattern’s form was maintained, and the single leg of relentless follow-through did correct — but only down into the 2844.50-2846.00 range.

The follow-through expended excess buying pressure, but its reaction down can still be a temporary correction. It gets more difficult to avoid reversing the trend down if the correction can’t hold a test of 2842.00. And it gets to be bearish under 2835.50.

Meanwhile, already no longer hugging this afternoon’s 2848.00 bias-up signal, exiting the noN-bias environment should start trending toward the next resolution — either back down into yesterday’s range at 2811.00 or 2802.00, or on the way back up to and through last week’s 2863.50 highs.

Bounce into the afternoon relieves oversold condition.

This test of 2808.00 gradually grinded its way down to 2803.00, just 1 point short of its room for noise. Bouncing into the bias environment’s exit easily recovered 2808.00, so that’s one test held.

The bounce extended through the noon hour exit. Its minimum likely objective of 2818.00 was probed by 1 point, but held the 2815.00 bias-up signal to trigger late no-bias. Its reaction down is now testing 2811.00, with room to the 2806.75 bias-down signal during the no-bias environment.

Until the bias environment starts lapsing. Or sooner, as no-bias trending.

One or the other (or both) is likely. Whether to extend the decline into something more durable, or to hold another test of 2808.00, bouncing out of the bias environment isn’t likely. Back above 2818.00 could start behaving bullishly, but a test of 2802.00 remains likelier.

Still hovering just under yesterday morning’s high.

This morning’s rally from 2827.00 to 2842.00 hasn’t really advanced since then. Flat-to-higher ranging briefly touched 2843.00, but also failed to trigger this afternoon’s 2841.00 bias-up signal.

The rally also hasn’t reversed down. It’s free to do so, at any time. NOT yet reversing down during the bias environment, or at least dipping to its lower-end, would become likelier to break higher as the bias environment lapses. Any fresh high at any time could still be a false break, and a retest of the morning lows is entirely possible.

Only entering the final hour above yesterday’s ~2844.00 high would be credible for avoiding another downleg before the close. Just closing above 2833.50 would keep alive yesterday’s Isolation setup, but closing above yesterday morning’s high would be optimal.

Was the intraday slide just rejected?

The noon hour tested both this afternoon’s 2826.00 bias-down signal and its 2820.50 bias-down target. A very late surge invoked the grace period, which then recovered enough to trigger no-bias. So, an offsetting test of both bias-up parameters is in-play.

And that’s after this morning’s rally attacking 2844.00. Its bias-up triggered cleanly, probing the pre-10:15 high, which usually confirms the current trending intends to fulfill its target. Usually. Breaking under its 2840.75 bias-up signal is like no-bias trending that requires being retraced, along with the 2847.75 bias-up target that became “unfinished business above.”

Meanwhile, the optimal open for an Isolation setup has been followed by the most sub-optimal price action possible, without yet invalidating it. Isolating the probe under Friday afternoon’s 2826.00 low to the noon hour is keeping alive the setup, but no rallying further this afternoon would all but kill it.