Mid-day Update

Just can’t break back above the drop’s target.

This morning’s post-open drop eventually touched 2832.00. Its recovery into the bias environment exit fully tested 2841.00-2843.00… as resistance.

2841.00-2843.00 had been the downside objective created by Wednesday-Thursday’s delays. But now it is resistance. Already probing back above it this morning would have turned it back into support, supporting an afternoon of backing-and-filling that could resolve up. Too late for that.

Now this afternoon’s 2835.50 bias-down signal has barely held to trigger “late no-bias.” It should define the window’s lower-end. Hovering here until the window lapses would be vulnerable to breaking lower into the weekend. This being a Friday, breaking lower prematurely — i.e. no-bias trending — could extend down anyway.

In fact, fresh afternoon lows are testing 2833.00. Which could extend deeper. Recovering the no-bias trending is always the likelier resolution, but Fridays are the least reliable.

More weirdness.

This morning’s late bias-up attacked 2863.00 at its height. But it was already retracing to 2859.00 when the bias environment began lapsing at 11:30. And then it plunged to attack 2855.00 by noon. That’s a fresh post-open low.

Reversal? Not any more so than the noon hour’s bounce that has extended to attack 2863.00. And that was after invoking another grace period, that wasn’t resolved by 1:30.

So, the Bermuda Triangle persists. Until it doesn’t. But there’s an app for that — several. Some of the higher profile are Narrow Range patterns (NR4 and NR7), and Bollinger Bands. They’re predicated on the historical reality that: nothing lasts forever, but when it seems like forever, they end abruptly.

My methodologies incorporate these applications indirectly. And I can say that we should be prepared, and not at all surprised, when this range explodes, too. But that’s not to say it’s a contained explosion, especially not with competing “unfinished business” both above and below at 2851.00 and 2866.25.

Attempted liftoff still barely hovering.

This morning’s detour ultimately bounced up to 2861.00. The 2851.00 bias-down target was only attacked to within 2 points, which does not qualify as fulfilling it. So, it becomes “unfinished business below.”

Any interim bounce should be only noise. Noise within negative territory, like this morning’s bounce (RSIs diverged negatively during the momentary probe above 2859.00-2860.00). Noise up to this afternoon’s 2862.25 bias-up signal during the no-bias environment.Noise back up to yesterday’s high under 2864.00.

Any higher would not be noise. So, any higher would be unlikely. And any higher would be problematic to the likely downside resolution. We’ll address that if it develops.

Meanwhile, ineffectual optimism has a cost. The market might compensate for the detour by probing under 2851.00. Or by breaking to the next lower support at 2841.00-2843.00. We’ll address that, too, if it develops.

Hovering just under this morning’s highs.

Surging at the open, and after its reaction, had extended up to 2863.75 soon after the first hour. An errant tick above the 2861.75 bias-up target was the high, and pushed price back down to 2858.00 as the bias environment began lapsing.

That range has defined price action since then. The half-hour leading into the noon hour, the noon hour, and now potentially the afternoon bias environment. No trending, just ranging.

Even the most bullish scenario doesn’t require extending up today, or prevent a deeper pullback. Back under 2859.50 would suggest a deeper pullback underway. Meanwhile, extending higher would be difficult during the no-bias environment, whose 2863.25 has held its test.

Another bias-up signaled.

This morning’s 2841.00 bias-up signal triggered cleanly, probed up to 2843.50. Its reaction down to 2841.00 held at 10:30, instead of invalidating bias-up. The 2846.00 bias-up target was met as the bias environment was lapsing.

As was suspected, the bias target’s test was likely to include 2848.00. Surging into the noon hour fulfilled it. Surging also extended to 2851.00, and eventually up to 2853.50 through the noon hour’s exit.

Now this afternoon’s 2848.00 bias-up signal has triggered. But its extended noon hour sponsorship has lost momentum, reversing back down to probe 2-3 ticks back under  2848.00.

This is still a bias-up environment. The window’s lower-end should be defined by its 2848.00 bias-up signal. That doesn’t preclude temporarily probing it down to 2846.00. Meanwhile, the 2854.25 bias-up target will become “unfinished business above” if left outstanding.