Mid-day Update

Difficult to snap back down without first stretching up.

Testing and retesting this morning’s 2661.50 bias-down signal fulfilled the no-bias signal’s requirement for its test. Neutralizing the attraction below creates a vulnerability to reversing up.

So, was its reaction a recovery, or just a bounce? The bias environment exit was still overlapping yesterday’s 2666.25 cash session close — probing above it, and under it. That’s not decisive, so new sponsorship wasn’t exploiting the vulnerability.

Price bounced further anyway, up to 2674.00. But this afternoon’s 2672.00 no-bias signal didn’t trigger, and its reaction is testing 2667.75 support. Its break would have room down to this afternoon’s 2659.25 bias-down signal during the no-bias environment. Back above 2672.00 would target fresh highs — regardless of this being a no-bias environment.

Probing or falling under this afternoon’s 2659.25 bias-down signal is difficult without first having probed prior highs. This being a Friday, exiting the bias environment under a relevant support could simply extend into the weekend. But it’s otherwise difficult to attract new sponsorship Friday afternoon when Friday morning couldn’t attract sponsorship itself.

Rally persists.

This morning’s rally extended to 2663.00 before reversing again down to 2652.00. But it was only a correction, and the noon hour largely recovered. Fresh highs into the afternoon bias environment probed the 2666.00 bias-up target to 2668.75.

A corrective rally off of yesterday’s lows has room up to 2677.00. Will it all be exploited? Today? Almost any fresh high would be likely at least to resume the rally.

Meanwhile, RSIs that were originally overbought when the rally peaked a half-hour ago have since diverged negatively. Back under 2664.00 would target a test of the 2659.25 bias-up signal, and then lower after the bias environment begins lapsing.

Looming events may inhibit further trending.

Recovering all of the post-open 22-point plunge was impressive. Especially the segment that exceeded this morning’s 2624.25 bias-down signal during a no-bias environment. The minimum objective for retracing the open was 2634.75, and it was touched.

That also retested the filled gap at yesterday’s close, and neither test was required. But exiting the bias environment above them would have allowed retracing the segment above 2624.25 to come from a position of strength. Perhaps that’s why actually retracing 2624.25 probed it down to 2619.75.

All of which has been recovered. Another fresh post-open high is piercing 2636.00 — the upper-end of the objective for retracing the open. Also like this morning’s test of the objective’s lower-end, it’s being done by “no-bias trending,” above the 2631.75 bias-up signal but too late to trigger.

Retracing this afternoon’s bias-up signal is required. Eventually. Meanwhile, fresh highs might attack 2638.00. Being no-bias trending that requires being retraced is already difficult to extend. There’s also post-close earnings looming from Facebook. The no-bias environment could dip back down to its 2621.75 bias-down signal just as noise.

Overnight rally’s rejection evolves into much more.

The session continues tumbling, proving that last night’s rally to 2688.50 was likely the mother of all “ineffectual optimism” as was suspected.

Friday afternoon’s 2660.00 origin of the string of ineffectual optimism and yesterday afternoon’s 2657.00 retest were retraced soon after the noon hour’s entry. The noon hour’s exit was testing 2639.00 and that’s extended down to 2623.25.

2630.50 is under two-week old levels. And like the other dominoes I’ve been describing, there’s no bullish reason to be revisiting this area. This afternoon’s most pertinent question seems to be whether any ineffectual optimism will enable another corrective bounce today.

1-minute RSI is diverging positively. But 3-minute RSI remains weak along with price. Exiting this afternoon’s bias environment in rally mode above a relevant resistance could at least pause the decline. Plenty of earnings are scheduled post-close, but none seem influential enough to inhibit more weakness.

Another relevant window returns to Friday’s close.

The bearish WedEX influence on this morning’s price action was not successful. Post-open probes into negative territory only tested the overnight lows down to 2667.50. The morning’s no-bias setup wasn’t successful either. An offsetting test of its 2665.50 bias-down signal became “unfinished business below.”

Attempts to actually reject the bearish WedEX also were not successful. Rallying to almost 2683.00 into the bias environment exit was no-bias trending. It has been retraced to the morning’s 2675.50 bias-up signal, and also to the 2670.50 10:15 print.

WedEX is no longer relevant. And returning yet again to unchanged around 2773.00 makes trending at all difficult. By the same token, intraday volatility hasn’t offset the earlier ineffectual optimism that makes probing lower this afternoon likely — so long as 2676.25 holds as resistance.