Mid-day Update

Bearish morning bounces into otherwise bearish afternoon.

This morning’s drop extended down eventually 24 points to attack 2668.00. An 11-point bounce resolved down during the noon hour to test 2665.00. Its reaction up was still overlapping this morning’s low going into the bias environment. The 2671.25 bias-down signal was still being overlapped, too. Downside momentum needed to rest.

Now that rest should be ending. No-bias triggered late, and the 2671.25 bias-down signal has defined the bias environment’s lower-end. A bounce to 2677.00 is drifting back down as the bias environment comes within view of lapsing. The bias-down signal no longer need hold as support.

More so, the bias-down signal’s support should break lower. The bearish WedEX should start influencing price action down. Back under 2670.00 would signal that momentum is reversing down, with potential to trend down through the close.

Last lower objective now tested as support.

That was a quick trip. Recovering 2681.50 had put into play the next higher objective at 2715.00-2722.00. The lower-end of the next higher objective was probed yesterday, leaving no “unfinished business above.” Now 2681.50 has been touched as support.

2681.50 happens to be be this afternoon’s bias-down target. This is a bias-down environment, so uptrending during the next half hp fill back to Monday’s futures close, which is natural support. Just probing more than 61.8% of the gap (under 2687.25) is unusual on the first attempt, and expends a lot of buying pressure.

Extending under 2681.50 is possible — its cash session close was 2678.00. But it’s unnecessary, and difficult at this stage. Reversing up is possible. The 2687.25 bias-down signal should define the bias-down environment’s upper-end (it’s being tested now), but probing above it anyway would require retracing back down to it at some point.

Minimum objective met, and holding.

The lower-end of the 2715.00-2722.00 objective was teased at repeatedly overnight. Yesterday afternoon had sort of teased at it, too, but it was probed decisively before the open. Despite triggering no-bias and dipping deeply post-open, the morning recovered just to probe the objective again.

2715.00 is substantial resistance. But it’s not yet a substantial repellent. All of that upside attraction might seem bullish. But it should also be noted that this morning’s recovery could have invalidated the no-bias objective below, by exiting the bias environment above its 2718.25 bias-up target, which instead held. So, perhaps hovering at session highs is only ineffectual optimism ahead of the 2:00 Beige Book release.

Probing any higher isn’t required, but probing any higher is likely to test 2722.00-2724.00. Exiting the bias environment in decline would be likely to fulfill unfinished business below at the 2703.75 low’s oversold RSIs and this morning’s 2702.25 bias-down signal. Either resolution is probably the product of pre-expiration positioning, informing this afternoon’s WedEX.

Ranging at or under this morning’s highs.

The likely objective to this morning’s rally was 2705.75. It was probed by almost 3 points before the morning’s bias environment began lapsing. Fluctuating around 2705.75 into and out of the noon hour broke lower just before the 1:20 bias timing window. The break held a test of the afternoon’s 2702.00 bias-down signal to trigger “late no-bias.”

So, 2702.00 should define this window’s lower-end. And if tested, the 2708.75 bias-up signal should define this window’s upper-end. Until the bias environment begins lapsing, or comes within view of lapsing in a half-hour. The pattern isn’t required to resolve in either direction, and not resolving down under 2681.50 keeps alive higher objectives at 2715.00-2722.00.

Noon hour breakout sitting at resistance.

The likely reward for maintaining the gap up was to retest Friday’s high up to 2681.50. Rallying through the noon hour’s entry pierced the 2677.50-2678.75 highs. Its correction then surged through the noon hour’s exit to touch this afternoon’s 2684.50 bias-up target.

2684.50 was tested as support after extending to 2687.00. Exceeding it by 1 point at the 1:20 bias timing window renewed the bias-up signal. Despite barely exceeding 2684.50, the signal is credible. It’s official, if not entirely reliable.

Back under 2683.00 would start to signal momentum reversing down. Still holding up into the final hour’s entry would be extremely unlikely to close back under 2672.00. And closing above 2681.50 would put into play the next higher objectives at 2715.00-2722.00.