Mid-day Update

Afternoon bounce, potential recovery.

This morning’s drop ultimately extended down to 2663.25. Oversold RSIs there will require its eventual retest. But that might be awhile.

The noon hour bounced 24 points up to 2687.25. Which was actually the second and maximum target of a corrective bounce. Its reaction down to 2671.25 suggested the correction was done, and that new lows at 2652.00-2653.00 remained in-play.

More so, tests of both bias-up parameters were on the verge of being rejected. Just rejecting a bias signal to trigger no-bias requires an offsetting test, but that’s a morning setup only. In the afternoon, rejecting tests of both bias parameters still requires offsetting tests of the other two.

But oh, no.

Bias-up triggered late to avoid the bias setup. And it wasn’t just recovered. The noon hour peak of its original test was recovered through 1:30 to mitigate the signal’s lateness. That was 11 points higher, and could prove to be very effectual optimism.

Currently, 1-minute RSI is diverging negatively on a test and retest of 2691.25. Back under 2680.00-2681.00 — preferably upon exiting the bias environment — would signal momentum reversing down. Otherwise, there’s potential for fresh session highs today. Closing above or below 2701.50 would then dictate the next leg.

Still hovering around yesterday afternoon’s highs.

Skepticism about this morning’s downside was proved out by the complete retracement from 2716.25 back up to within 1 tick of the open’s 2727.75 high. But that happened too late to affect the bias signal, and didn’t change that an offsetting test of its 2710.25 bias-down signal had been put into play.

The balance of the morning reacted down to fresh lows before bouncing 10 points into the noon hour. Now that has been retraced entirely to within 1 tick of this morning’s 2713.50 low.

This is a no-bias environment, so fresh lows would be inhibited from getting very far for another half-hour. A deeper drop that waits until then, or that bounces back to the bias signal, would be more reliable for extending. Recovering 2720.00 would start to signal more upside, regardless of whether the downside attraction had been fulfilled.

Back to testing an overly-tested support.

The next lower objective for this morning’s renewed bias-down signal was 2726.00-2727.00. It was met easily soon after the bias timing window triggered at 10:15. And it was being tested as resistance as the bias environment began lapsing at 11:30. That’s not counter-trend sponsorship timing.

The next lower objectives at 2711.50 and 2706.00 were tested during the noon hour, and as the noon hour was lapsing. The actual afternoon bias-down signal is 2707.00, and it was being attacked by a bounce into the 1:20 bias timing window. Also not counter-trend sponsorship timing.

The renewed bias-down target is 2701.50. There’s no bullish reason to revisit 2701.50, unless its test can be isolated. Like to the cusp between timing windows, which it was.

Now its reaction is testing 2710.00. Back under 2705.00 would suggest the drop is resuming, next targeting the 2690.00 area. The alternative doesn’t necessarily rally, but could seem like a rally simply by bouncing 20 points to the prior objective.

Choppy ranging isn’t gaining sponsorship. Yet.

Opening firmer at 2756.00 eventually probed higher, and eventually tested this morning’s 2764.75 bias-up target. The bias environment exit probed above it to 2766.00. But only then, and only that much, and only for several minutes before reversing back down. The open was attacked down to 2758.00 by noon.

The gap back down to yesterday’s close is being retraced, too, down to 2754.50. That’s still overlapping this afternoon’s 2756.00 bias-down signal. This being a no-bias environment, its test should define the window’s lower-end.

It’s not in-play, but there’s room to fluctuate up to the 2764.50 bias-up signal. Its resistance won’t matter in another half-hour, and neither will this morning’s reluctance to trend. Also not mattering then — the 2756.00 bias-down signal’s support. Unless 2759.00 is recovered to reverse momentum up, exiting the bias environment under 2756.00 could drift to fresh lows for the week.

Finally leaving the range, for another one.

This morning’s bias environment eventually broke higher above the 2760.00 open. The window began lapsing coincidentally when yesterday afternoon’s 2767.25 high was touched. That was still within the range, and as was suspected this morning, the range held. Reacting down eventually entered the afternoon bias environment unchanged at 2754.00.

This afternoon’s 2755.00 bias-down signal held through its grace period. This is a no-bias environment, and a retracement to and the afternoon’s 2755.00 bias-down signal should define the window’s lower-end. That didn’t prevent a negative knee-jerk reaction to a Trump-probe headline, which has extended to within 3 ticks of the 2745.00 overnight low. That’s also the natural support of last Thursday’s gap.

Retracing 2755.00 would allow a deeper downleg to begin, targeting the 2735.00 area. Otherwise, recovering 2755.00 could extend to also retest the overbought RSIs at the morning’s 2767.25 high.