Mid-day Update

Consolidating under key support.

Having held a test of this morning’s 2781.50 bias-up signal, and offsetting test of its 2766.00 bias-down signal was put into play. It was attacked and tested and eventually probed before the bias environment began lapsing. But it needed to define the window’s lower-end, which was done barely in time to neutralize its attraction.

Then the bias environment exit plunged to 2752.00. Ranging choppily through the noon hour just triggered noN-bias, instead of either triggering or rejecting the afternoon’s 2753.00 bias-down signal. There’s no requirement to extend down, or for the window’s low to be defined.

Meanwhile, the noon hour’s choppy range included resistance at 2758.00. Closing under it would negate any upside put into play by having closed above 2770.00. Holding 2758.00 must then recover 2770.00 with little if any delay to be credible.

Unfinished business above is added to the higher targets.

Reacting down from 2807.25 down through this morning’s 2802.50 bias-up target had tried to hold support at the 2794.75 bias-up signal. It failed. It had broken 10 points lower by noon, and extended another 10 points lower during the noon hour to 2774.00.

Bouncing to 2788.00 avoided triggering the afternoon’s 2780.75 bias-down signal. It’s being tested now anyway down to 2778.00. Being a no-bias environment, the 2780.75 bias-down signal’s test should define the window’s lower-end. Otherwise, probing under it will require being retraced.

Similarly, this morning’s 2794.75 bias-up signal’s test requires being retraced. Often, the 10:15 print at 2801.00 will be retraced, too. Back above 2784.50 would start to signal the retest underway, confirmed above 2788.50. Until then, the pullback is vulnerable to extending down further.

Overnight highs yet to be retested.

The open’s surge that fulfilled the 2891.75 bias-up target wasn’t retraced deeply enough to reject bias-up altogether. The 2793.50 bias-up signal cleanly. So, still being a bias-up environment, dipping down to 2789.00 was still likely to be recovered. In fact, probing negative territory held 2784.00 and bounced back up to 2793.50.

Retracing up to the 2793.50 bias-up signal was required for having probed under it during a bias-up environment. Often the 10:15 print is also retraced, which this morning is 2797.25. But that doesn’t require a retest. In fact, there is no “unfinished business above.”

But a recovery is still likelier, considering the late origin of this morning’s drop, and now having exited the noon hour in positive territory. Otherwise, another downleg exiting the bias environment would start to signal a deeper pullback underway. And having reversed last night’s fresh highs into positive territory this morning, a deeper pullback could still resume the distributive template.

No distributive behavior all morning.

Did the next higher objectives just come into play? That’s “higher prior lows,” a gap and a retracement, at 2818.00 and 2830.00-2833.00 respectively.

The next higher objective had been 2730.25-2732.75, which was met and held Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Closing above it would have targeted 2758.00, if it were not already met this morning. Closing above 2758.00 would target 2770.00, but it was met this morning, too.

Closing above 2770.00 would target 2818.00 and 2830.00-2833.00 — if today’s close isn’t back under 2770.00. Closing under 2758.00 would reverse momentum down. Either negative scenario would develop aggressively. epsecially the later that it began.

Bearish template remains intact, but window has narrowed.

All of this morning’s bounces reacted down to relevant levels before attempting another bounce. The ongoing failed probes of higher highs has continued tracking the bearish distribution template. The last failure finally produced a fresh post-open low during the noon hour. That should be the template’s final confirmation, although a more liquid timing window is always preferable.

Anyway, now the question is when the pattern resolves down.

And the answer is anytime. Sort of. The template is still likeliest to resolve down during the same afternoon as the morning distribution. But that’s more difficult today. Tomorrow’s Employment Situation report often paralyzes the market with anxiousness.

Also, this afternoon’s 2724.00 bias-down signal is supportive for another hour until the bias environment starts lapsing. Probing under it would be no-bias trending that requires at least retracing.