Mid-day Update

Buyers seem to be falling back asleep.

Rallying from the 2709.00 overnight low up to noon’s 2737.75 high barely managed to qualify as fulfilling the bullish WedEX. But WedEX is now moot. Continuing the recovery this afternoon all but required triggering the 2737.50 bias-up signal. But the reaction to touching it at noon has only slid to touch 2725.00.

This being a no-bias environment, the window’s lower-end should be defined by its 2724.00 bias-down signal if tested. It can be probed down to 2721.00-2722.50 and still be likely to recover, at least to retrace the signal. Back above 2735.00 would start to signal that this morning’s recovery intends to extend into late-afternoon.

But we can’t dismiss or discount the relevance of testing and holding 2737.50 at the relevant noon window. And not just because it is this afternoon’s bias-up signal. It is also Thursday night’s “spindle” which had developed wider and wider swings around it. And it was Friday afternoon’s bias environment entry and exit that had barely held.

It is meanwhile resistance. And holding its test this afternoon keeps alive the potential not only for launching a downleg, but also for resuming the decline to fresh lows.

Russia news stretches the rubber band.

Rallying through the morning entered the noon hour at the afternoon’s 2748.00 bias-up signal. Probing it during the noon hour attacked 2755.00, sufficiently fulfilling the 2753.00-2757.00 objective and not requiring its retest.

All of that before the bullish WedEX could begin influencing the afternoon. Tough act to follow.

Then came headlines of election meddling indictments, triggering a 25-point drop to 2730.00. It had become too late to trigger the 2732.50 bias-down signal (so, also too late to invert the bullish WedEX). The bias signal’s support coincided with additional statements that significantly undermined the decline’s catalyst. The resulting bounce is testing 2744.50.

It’s possible that the drop cleared the decks of potential selling pressure becoming pent-up during the earlier rally. This makes it easier for the afternoon to be influenced by the bullish WedEX. That said, it’s now the only upside catalyst, having fulfilled enough of the 2753-2757 objective and failing to trigger bias-up.

Morning drop recovered to probe overnight highs.

This morning’s 2703.00 bias-up signal triggered without being touched post-open. But having held a test of its 2713.50 bias-up target, the balance of the window was likely to test the bias-up signal as support. This template is standard, and I describe it in great detail this morning here.

Anyway, probing under the bias-up signal had required retracing 2703.00 before an actual drop would be credible. No actual drop was required. The retracement would be free to actually resume the overnight rally, or at least to retest the 2719.50 overnight high.

2703.00 was probed down to 2688.50, indicating a buy signal back above 2700.00. It triggered, and the overnight high was probed up to 2721.00.

Structurally, the fresh high is the minimum reward for having absorbed the probe under 2703.00. Meanwhile, this afternoon’s 2712.50 bias-up signal has triggered, putting into play its 2725.00 target. A pullback is now trying to hold 2712.50 as support, and back above 2717.00 (being tested now) would start signaling its success. Dipping under 2711.50 would be difficult to recover today.

BITCOIN. I described a pattern developing this morning that suggested the hesitation upon approaching 10,000 would lead to a surge through it, and THEN a more substantial pullback. The surge is now developing, and my mid-morning update in the chaRTroom noted its minimum target is 10,225 where I would begin selling. Piercing the target by $22 is reacting down sharply, already $100 points to 9,945. Curiously, ETH and LTC didn’t participate to the upside.

Overnight pre-plunge highs being exceeded.

Retracing the pre-open 49-point plunge from its 2627.00 low greeted the open at 2645.50, then retraced the rest by 2 extra points to 2679.50 soon after the session’s first hour lapsed. Ranging choppily flat-to-higher through the bias environment finally resumed trending coming out of the noon hour. Fresh highs have touched 2694.50.

Completing the retracement was no reason to expect trending attempts to end. Rather, the two legs told us that this environment is vulnerable to wide moves. The latest 17 points could suffice, or it could add another 4-6 points and attack or retest 2700.00.

RSIs diverged negatively on the latest blip-up to fresh highs, so upside momentum is being challenged. A pullback during the bias-up environment has room down to its 2676.75 bias-up signal just as noise without damaging the uptrend. But reversing down to 2676.75 AFTER the bias-up environment lapses would be less assured of recovering, and not protected from retracing much of the intraday rally.

I’M AWAY FROM THE SCREENS FOR TODAY’S LAST 90 MINUTES.
THERE IS NO MARKET WRAP.

Our long, national nightmare is over. Those lines on the nearby chart were all actionable if probed beyond their first 3 minutes.

Actually, it wasn’t as bad as that. It was worse. We had warning — if not of a “dry cleaners morning,” then at least from a noN-bias signal. Nevertheless, it’s always astonishing in one way or another how torturous and frustrating the market can whiplash itself about.

The first hour’s range was resisted by its 2645.50 bias-down signal. It essentially supported the balance of the morning. Every test of the range’s 2650.50 inflection point above was only overlapped and never exceeded its first 3-minute extreme. The same went for its 2643.00 inflection point below.

As often happens with such mornings that do resolve the same day, their resolution tends to be swift. In fact, this afternoon’s 2650.50 bias-up signal was triggered on the way to its 2660.75 bias-up target several minutes later. Its reaction down is now probing fresh highs at 2663.00.

Room for noise above the gap back to yesterday’s 2654.00-2654.75 close is 2663.75, being attacked now to within 1 tick. Exiting the bias environment any higher would next target 2673.75 and potentially also 2684.00. Otherwise, until neutralizing overbought RSIs at the high, the nearest sell signal would trigger back under 2651.75.