Mid-day Update

Still probing higher, albeit ill-timed.

The open’s attack on the 2655.00 overnight high was reversed back into negative territory at 2620.00. But the morning’s 2625.75 bias-up signal had triggered at 10:15. Regardless of having already met its bias-up target, the bias-up signal was likely to define the window’s lower-end.  In fact, the noon hour’s entry was probing the 2642.50 bias-up target.

The timing of that fresh recovery high created the likelihood for extending to a fresh session high. In fact, 2660.00 was probed during the noon hour. And 2667.50 was probed during the afternoon bias environment.

The timing of fresh highs continues to reflect sponsorship as being weak-handed. Probing fresh highs when entering the noon hour instead of later would have marginalized sellers for the day. And now extending higher anyway during the afternoon’s no-bias environment requires retracing to its 2556.00 bias-up signal.

All of which can be followed by yet more weak-handed sponsorship. But it usually isn’t. Exiting the bias environment back under this morning’s 2654.50 high would be the clearest signal that the bounce is done and momentum is reversing down. Meanwhile, the rally is vulnerable to reversing down, but can extend to 2673.75 or 2684.00.

Greeting the afternoon at fresh lows..

This morning’s 2570.75 bias-down signal was overlapped only by the bars that fulfilled its required test down to 2566.00. A 32-point bounce consolidated through the bias environment lapsing. The morning’s decline resumed through the noon hour.

Even before triggering this afternoon’s 2558.00 bias-down signal, its 2540.00 bias-down target was being tested at the noon hour’s 2538.75 low. Its reaction attacked 2566.00 before reversing back down to and through 2540.00. The target wasn’t broken in time to renew the bias-down signal, but it’s being probed now by 10 points.

That’s within 5 ticks of Monday night’s 2529.00 low. Its retest is likely to include 2509.00-2511.00. The lower target gets every benefit of the doubt unless disproved. Here’s one way for that: The afternoon’s bias-down environment should be limited to tests of its 2558.00 bias-down signal if tested. But recovering it when the bias environment begins lapsing at 2:30 could trigger a short squeeze.

Selling pressure is growing.

The wide, choppy open took its time before finally triggering late bias-down under 2674. The 2651 bias-down target was quickly met, launching another choppy range into noon. That choppy range was choppier than the open.

Then trending resumed, attacking 2613 before the noon hour ended. That 45-point downleg was bigger than the earlier 33-point downleg that had fulfilled the bias-down target.

In other words, the downward gyrations are expanding.

That has become the theme this week. One might even call it a “pattern.” Tuesday’s bottoming pattern was the culmination of Friday and Monday’s downward expansion. And this morning’s drop followed Tuesday and Wednesday’s expanded distribution at resistance. Either setup could have been overcome by gapping up enough. As could today’s.

If the decline can pause that long. Which it’s trying to do, extending the bounce from 2613 to 2649. But everything above the ~2641 bias-down signal during a no-bias environment is “no-bias trending” that will require being retraced. That would be problematic to invalidating the intraday selling expansion, if its consequence is already developing today before a gap up tomorrow could invalidate it.

And the consequence of that expansion is to probe under Tuesday’s intraday lows, all but ensuring new lows down to 2509-2511. So, perhaps the only bullish scenario must be sure to retest ~2641 through the bias environment starting to lapse, and then rally sharply into proximity of a gap up tomorrow.

Morning rally is retraced.

The open’s 2681-2686 range had resolved up sharply. Yesterday’s late 2700 high was recovered, the 2707 bias-up signal was triggered, and eventually its 2722 bias-up target was probed up to 2727.

Then the bias-up environment began lapsing. The predictable was done and RSIs were deteriorating. Dipping into the noon hour eventually broke lower to probe most of the open’s 2681-2686 range. That also held the 2690.25 bias-down target through 1:20 to avoid renewing the bias-down signal. And now a bounce just touched 2706.

Despite not renewing the bias-down signal, this is still a bias-down environment. Its 2701 bias-down signal should define the window’s upper-end regardless of already having met its target. Recovering it through the bias environment exit would be credible for another short-squeeze like yesterday. Meanwhile, probing above it would require its retest before rallying would be reliable.

Back under 2697.50 (being tested now) would start to signal another downleg underway. This being Wednesday that has already rallied decisively while satisfying buying pressure, there’s vulnerability to a Wednesday Wreveral that ends the session decisively negative. But that bearish potential should be obvious before entering the final hour if it’s going to develop today.

Morning chop now followed by afternoon chop.

This morning’s post-open surge had formed a Running Correction between 2633-2651. Entering the noon hour beyond either end would have been likely to trend in that direction. Trending would be possible, but not from that signal.

The noon hour was entered 1 point above the pattern’s lower-end. And despite probing above its upper-end during the noon hour, now the afternoon bias environment is being entered back at the pattern’s lower-end.

Meanwhile, this afternoon’s bias-up signal failed to trigger, and wasn’t rejected (noN-bias) after the noon hour had met its target. Another break lower would still have potential to probe fresh post-open lows, if not also under the overnight lows. Back above 2660.00 would start to signal a rally into the close is underway.