Mid-day Update

Post-open bounce resolves down sharply.

The pre-open and post-open attacks on the earlier overnight low had stopped optimistically short. Which didn’t preclude there being a bounce, and clearly didn’t prevent on. But only a bounce. And no matter how substantial, not a durable bounce. Retesting 2747.00 and 2738.00 overnight had made 2722.00 likely to be tested, too.

2722.00 was just tested down to 2715.00. And 2722.00 was still being overlapped at 1:20, then again at 1:30. That’s not to say the bias was affected, but the relevant price was holding at a relevant time to suggest that selling is waning.

Now a bounce is testing 2730.00, on its way to 2738.00 so long as 2721.25 holds as support. Recovering 2738.00 through the bias environment exit could lead to a short-squeeze into the close. Otherwise, the next lower objectiv would be December’s “lower prior highs” at 2690.00.

Morning’s low fails.

One of the latest bullish scenarios would have been proved by entering the noon hour attacking post-open highs. That would have indicated the morning bias environment’s selling pressure was all that sellers could do. It wasn’t; the noon hour was entered at fresh lows.

Even entering the afternoon bias environment above relevant resistance could have indicated sellers were done. There wouldn’t have been the same potential to attract buyers, but first things first. The bias environment was entered at fresh lows.

Despite triggering noN-bias, this afternoon’s 2781.00 bias-down target is being tested. Exiting the bias environment back above its 2786.50 bias-down signal would rob sellers of their traction. Back above 2793.50 could start to reverse the trend up. But meanwhile the risk continues to be that two days of impending illiquidity is leveraging a week of decline to produce even more selling pressure.

Support defended, drop retraced.

Sliding, collapsing and ultimately plunging ahead of the open probed yesterday’s low, and recovered. Yesterday’s low had held 2814.50, which this morning’s open tested, and recovered. This morning’s bias-down parameters triggered, and were tested, and now recovered.

Buyers have absorbed a lot.

Now this afternoon’s 2835.00 bias-up signal has been tested. Thoroughly. It failed to trigger, either way. It wasn’t exceeded to trigger bias-up, and it wasn’t rejected at both 1:20 and 1:30 to trigger noN-bias. Its target above isn’t in-play, and it’s not required to hold as resistance.

That said, a pullback to 2824.50-2827.50 is possible while still being only a temporary pullback. Regardless, closing above 2835.00 is the minimum level for any reliability to react favorably tomorrow and extend back to the highs. But greeting payrolls from too deep of a pullback would re-open the room down to 2805.00 and 2793.50.

Trying to reject bias-down.

This morning’s recovery from 2818.50 made it to 2837.00 before the bias environment began lapsing. The recovery was retraced down to 2820.50, triggering the afternoon’s bias-down. But the afternoon’s behavior doesn’t seem to know it — A 12-point bounce is testing 2832.00.

The bounce may be only a correction. Of course, this is a very bearish chart point to be expending weak-handed buying pressure. Stretching the rubber band could snap back down very hard this afternoon, to 2805.00 and 2893.00.

This afternoon’s 2819.00 bias-down target is now “unfinished business below.” It can remain outstanding while the bounce extends into a rally. But back under 2824.50 would start to signal the rubber band is snapping back down.

Morning drop loses steam.

This morning’s drop ultimately extended down to 2854.50. It found its low at Friday morning’s “lower prior highs.” Its reaction up began exiting the bias environment back above its 2860.25 bias-down target. The noon hour’s entry tested 2860.25 from a bigger bounce.

That was more than enough to suggest the morning’s sellers were fulfill, and their drop failed to gain traction. This doesn’t necessarily default to reversing up, but it is constructive to a recovery. Buyers must still gain traction, which they narrowly avoided by triggering noN-bias at this afternoon’s 2866.25 bias-up signal.

Bouncing through the noon hour had extended up to 2868.25 before dipping 4 points. Any lower would start to suggest sellers were trying again. Otherwise, exiting the afternoon bias environment at 2:30 in rally mode would next target a retest of last night’s 2878.50 highs.