Mid-day Update

Choppy morning gets nowhere.

A noN-bias environment often sucks volatility out of the market until the timing window lapses. This morning’s noN-bias environment certainly didn’t trend, but it was volatile. And the entire morning elapsed without breaking in either direction.

Not rejecting the gap down kept the door open to extending lower through the morning. This being a Friday, if the morning had held tests of an actual prior low, then an afternoon rally would become very likely. But this morning only held tests of a retracement calculation, so there’s only potential for an afternoon rally.

Room to test this afternoon’s 2580.25 by a point should not be confused with trending. And the door remains open to extending lower into the close, especially if 2580.25 were to tested and already reacting down when the bias environment begins lapsing at 2:30. Otherwise, trending today isn’t required, but recovering 2581.50 could extend higher into the close, instead.

Lower low goes the distance.

The open’s test of “lower prior highs” was tested down to 2574.25. That could have served as a bottom. In fact, it was recovered up to 2583.75. But not the morning’s bias environment was exited back down at the lower prior highs. And the noon hour was entered lower.

Actually, the noon hour was entered at 2570.00, which would have been the renewed bias-down target. That’s where the noon hour was exited, too, after an interim dip. And the interim dip wasn’t arbitrary — it touched the afternoon’s 2563.75 bias-down target.

Wait, there’s more.

The afternoon bias environment was entered back above the 2569.25 bias-down signal. No-bias triggered after holding tests of both bias-down parameters. In the morning, this setup would put into play tests of both bias-up parameters. Not in the afternoon. While at least the 2575.75 bias-up signal is likely to be tested,  and was, it should also contain the no-bias environment’s upper-end, and is.

Back under 2571.50 would start to signal another downleg underway to fresh lows. Otherwise, back above 2579.00 would start to signal a bigger recovery underway.

Bias-up triggered.

This morning’s gap down extended lower only to attack yesterday’s lows, let alone the overnight lows. But the morning remained within yesterday afternoon’s range, until the bias environment began lapsing.

And it has been straight up since then.

Holding a test of this morning’s 2582.75 bias-down signal had put into play an offsetting test of the 2589.25 bias-up signal. Its attraction finally created a break above yesterday afternoon’s highs. Which led to a test of this afternoon’s 2588.25 bias-up signal. It triggered, putting into play its 2594.50 bias-up target.

There’s no fresh high since before 1:20, and price has been fluctuating around 2590.50. So, upside momentum may take another pause like this morning’s bullish setup. There’s room down to 2586.00 before reversing the trend down. But resuming the rally could probe fresh highs up to 2600.75.

Pullback target met.

The open’s surge peaked upon touching the 2393.50 overnight high. Being a “new Globex trend extreme,” its intraday retest was required. Its reaction down was not.

But its reaction down was not noise. It rejected the 2591.50 bias-up signal that had been in a position to trigger. And that put into play an offsetting test of its 2583.50 bias-down signal.

Just that suddenly, unfinished business above was replaced with unfinished business below. And almost just that quickly, the unfinished business below has been neutralized, too. Sliding into the noon hour fulfilled the objective, and it was soon probed down to 2580.75.

But another attraction above has not been created. Not gapping up this morning means the open doesn’t require being tested from below. And this afternoon’s bias-up signal wasn’t triggered — it wasn’t even attacked. A 6-point bounce off the low is still several points into negative territory, and expending buying pressure.

The rally could get back on track. One way would be to exit the bias environment back in positive territory above 2588.00-2588.75, which would be credible for extending higher through the close. Meanwhile, bouncing without gaining traction keeps the pattern vulnerable to another downleg.

Eking higher.

This morning’s 2590.50 bias-up target was put into play. Its bias-up signal was triggered late, but it was triggered. And price action since then has been a series of higher highs and higher lows keeping the trend intact.

2589.00 is being tested now. This afternoon’s 2588.00 bias-up signal triggered a grace period like this morning. But that ended with an ongoing test of 2588.00 to avoid triggering either bias-up or no-bias. Momentum remains intact, barely.

RSIs aren’t overbought into the current highs. The target gets every benefit of the doubt for being tested, but no for avoiding a reaction down. Watch out below if 2590.50‘s test is accompanied by negative divergence AFTER an RSI gets oversold again.

Regardless of the “unfinished business above,” exiting the bias environment under 2586.00 would start to signal a deeper pullback already underway. Otherwise, there’s still also potential for fulfilling the new trend high close requirement today.