Mid-day Update

Morning’s range resolves up into the afternoon.

2574.00 support held a test, a touch and an attack while interim bounces chipped away at 2577.00 resistance this morning. Recovering 2578.00 as the bias environment began lapsing was a likely marker of a valid breakout. Trending up relentlessly into and out of the noon hour is retesting Wednesday’s highs.

Structurally, today’s rally has done the minimum required by retesting Wednesday’s 2581.50 opening print. Calculably, Wednesday’s 2580.00-2585.50 opening range is being retraced by 61.8% up to 2583.75, and any higher would require at least fully retracing the high. As for patterns and timing windows, triggering this afternoon’s 2580.50 bias-up signal has put into play its 2586.00 target.

Fulfilling the 2586.00 target and avoiding a new trend high close on a Friday would not necessarily reverse momentum down, but it would not be bullish. And reversing down remains a risk today, since buyers are once again late to start trending. Regardless, nothing is threatening the 2590.50 higher objective that remains in-play.

Another dip recovered, but not reversed.

Anxiousness ahead of the post-close AAPL earnings and tomorrow’s pre-open Employment Situation report may be taking hold now. Price action for the balance of the afternoon could be paralyzed by anxiousness.

That might be an overstatement. There’s plenty of room for backing-and-filling within the existing range. Or price could hover at or around the afternoon’s 2574.75 bias-up signal which was pierced momentarily but not triggered.

Inhibition ahead of the news items can otherwise inhibit trending up. Only attack relevant levels but not yet recovering them means they held. And entering the bias environment still in negative territory is difficult to rally.

Hovering at or around 2574.75 could start breaking higher when the bias environment begins lapsing. That would be credible for extending higher. But breaking higher at all isn’t required.

Post-open surge’s reaction is extended on news.

Dipping through the open down to 2580.00-2581.50 was recovered to fresh highs at 2585.50, forming an anchor that would likely attract price back up in case of reversing down. We’ll see. Overbought RSIs at the high encouraged a reaction down that ultimately broke under 2580.00, and extended down to 2575.00 by noon.

More so, the noon hour’s exit broke even lower to 2571.50. Its catalyst appears to have been news of a possible attack in London similar to yesterday afternoon’s New York tragedy. If so, then like yesterday, the selling is artificial and likely to be trapped. The question is when.

The headline’s reaction enabled triggering the 2574.00 bias-down signal. It was recovered by 1 tick at 1:30 to essentially invalidate the signal. That’s much less decisive than I like to see for invalidation purposes. Firming only another point since then hasn’t helped. And that’s despite the London incident being labeled NOT terror-related.

Meanwhile, the 2:00pm ET FOMC policy statement is just ahead. Attracting reinforcements did prove difficult ahead of FOMC and after the overnight rally. The 2585.50 high’s overbought RSIs don’t require its retest, but they can still be retested. And the 2590.50 objective remains intact. A bullish resolution is likely so long as the news is greeted from above 2571.00.

Still fluctuating around the open.

This morning’s likelier scenario was to fluctuate sideways, essentially within yesterday afternoon’s 2567.00-2571.00 range. The gap up’s reversal back into yesterday afternoon’s range had crept lower to gain traction that made its recovery unlikely.

Ultimately, the post-open dip was retraced back up to this morning’s 2574.25 bias-up signal. No higher, as a recovery this morning had become unlikely. But the dip into yesterday afternoon’s range was recovered, so the sideways ranging has developed around the 2573.00 opening print.

The afternoon’s bias environment has triggered no-bias. Meanwhile, buying pressure isn’t being expended, but is it being conserved for use when the bias environment lapses? Still hovering at session highs into the bias environment exit would be vulnerable to rallying through the close. Otherwise. breaking back under 2571.50 would open the door back into yesterday afternoon’s range and lower.

Other shoes dropping.

More news on indictment-Monday included a low-level campaign advisor’s guilty plea for lying to the FBI. He was being worked by a Russian agent, so it brushes up against the Russian collusion narrative. But it still falls short.

That hasn’t stopped the market hunkering down again, this time in reaction. Some tax reform headlines may have also contributed. Regardless, the morning’s break back under 2473.50 produced fresh session lows down to 2565.50. That’s 3 ticks under this afternoon’s bias-down signal, which didn’t trigger.

Oversold RSIs at the low don’t require being retested since they developed during the noon hour. Recovering into the afternoon bias environment has touched 2571.50. A pullback has room to test 2568.00 without yet beginning to signal fresh lows in-play.