Mid-day Update

Pushing the boulder back down this hill is more difficult.

This morning’s 2569.00 bias-up target was being tested at 10:15 to avoid renewing the bias-up signal. A dip back down to the open’s 2566.00 low ran down the clock, waiting for the morning to end.

Rallying out of the morning’s bias environment has extended relentlessly through the noon hour. Fresh highs are touching 2572.25.

The 2571.75 overnight high’s “new Globex trend extreme” had required an intraday retest, which is now done. Its retest was likely to include 2573.50. That’s also likely due to this afternoon’s 2568.75 bias-up signal triggering, putting into play its 2573.50 target. Its test can be neutralized by coming within 3-4 ticks, which is now done.

What about that bearish WedEX influence? Yesterday’s gap down was deep enough to adjust Wednesday’s bullish signal to bearish. Its influence either way is irrelevant until Friday afternoon. We’re here.

Probing fresh highs doesn’t contradict the bearish WedEX — not so long as the close has retraced the probe. The window was entered at 2571.00, so retracing it shouldn’t be difficult, mathematically. At least 1-minute RSI is diverging negatively, and there’s no “unfinished business above.” This being Friday afternoon, counter-trend sponsorship is difficult to attract. So, reversing should be obvious soon, if at all.

Noon hour exited above morning’s range.

It’s still negative territory, 2-3 points under yesterday’s 2559.50 cash session close. But that’s a 3-4 points above the open’s 2553.75-2554.50 peak.

We already know the opening peak’s relevance, since we stalked it for short-entry. And its reaction was productive, both testing its renewed bias-down target 2546.25 objective and containing the selling pressure to the opening 45 minutes. The morning’s bias environment contained no downtrending, seriously undermining sellers.

Exiting the noon hour above that entire morning range is signaling that the overnight drop may have been a one-off. Not an anomaly, but possibly a warning shot across the bow. In either case, “unfinished business above” at yesterday’s highs may be tested before a durable collapse.

Now this afternoon has triggered noN-bias. Its 2556.00 bias-up signal need not define this window’s upper-end, and its bias-up target need not be met. But the window is free to extend anyway, which it’s trying, currently attacking 2558.00. Only a break back under 2553.75 would suggest another downleg may be underway.

Not rejecting bias-ups.

The post-open slide back down to this morning’s 2557.75 bias-up signal had held as support, piercing it by 2 ticks.A bounce tested 2559.75 resistance, by 2 ticks. Its reaction down touched the morning’s low and bounced again.

The second bounce has been more productive. Its test of 2559.75 resistance extended to touch this afternoon’s 2561.25 bias-up signal. It was still being tested (at least, to within 1 tick) at both 1:20 and 1:30 to trigger noN-bias.

This afternoon’s bias environment is neither a bias-up nor a no-bias. The bias-up target is not required to be met, and the bias-up signal isn’t required to contain the window’s upper-end.

Meanwhile, a buy signal is already in-play. The pre-open 2562.25 “new Globex trend extreme” and this morning’s 2566.50 bias-up target both require an eventual test. And fresh afternoon highs are now attacking 2562.00. There’s no requirement to extend their tests, but the resolution to their tests will be very predictive near-term.

New highs aren’t attracting new buyers.

Immediately collapsing this morning without first surging would have been credible for extending down. Immediately surging would have been credible for extending up. Instead of exploiting either setup, the opening hour held a narrow 2-point range  between 2554.00-2556.25. And THEN trending was attempted.

By then, collapsing only attacked 2552.00. It was too late for that price action to be considered the open. It could have extended deeper, but it was recovered entirely back up to 2556.25. Now, dipping into and out of the noon hour is attacking the morning’s low to within 1 tick. It could extend deeper, but that isn’t required any more so than this morning’s setup.

Recovering entirely back up to 2556.25 would all but ensure another probe of fresh highs. There’s meanwhile no requirement for this session to budge at all. But suddenly sliding as the afternoon bias environment begins lapsing at 2:30 would be credible for extending down.

Still lacking a break under a prior low.

This morning’s reaction down from 2557.75 to 2552.00 and bounced to 2554.75. That resolved down into the noon hour’s 2550.75 low. Then bounced again. The last downleg was retraced by 61.8%, and then more so up to 2554.50, natural resistance which is still being tested. Meanwhile, the sell signal’s bounce limit was just violated.

The delay in reversing into negative territory doesn’t have any bearing on whether that remains possible. It does. Sellers aren’t marginalized, but neither are buyers. Without breaking a relevant low, the rally remains intact as ever.

Back above 2555.25 would now suffice to suggest that buyers are retaking control. Back under 2551.50 would resume the decline.