Mid-day Update

No collapse yet, but not extending either.

Exiting the morning’s bis environment and/or entering the noon hour under either 2553.25 or also 2550.00 would have been likely to trend down sharply during the afternoon.

The bias environment exit did probe back under 2553.25. But not a lot, and not for long. No lower low has developed, but neither has a higher high. This morning’s 2555.50 high has been touched again, but not pierced.

The vulnerability to trending back down remains alive so long as the afternoon bias environment isn’t exited in rally mode. Otherwise, there’s no requirement to extend up, only a vulnerability.

No new bias-up, but an attraction above.

This morning’s bias environment had recovered up to 2552.25. Lapsing broke higher into the noon hour up to 2553.25. Being both Tuesday and Wednesday’s high, its resistance is likely only obligatory. So far, so true, as the noon hour’s dip to 2550.50 has been recovered back up to 2553.25.

This afternoon’s bias-up signal didn’t trigger. Neither did no-bias. This is a noN-bias environment that isn’t restrained by the bias signal or attracted to the bias target.

As it happens, this morning’s 2557.00 bias-up target became “unfinished business above.” And it remains in-play so long as pullbacks now hold 2550.25 as support.

Firming optimistically into FOMC Minutes.

Price action was somewhat inhibited ahead of this afternoon’s FOMC Minutes. The noon hour’s fresh highs tested this afternoon’s 2550.75 bias-up signal. Twice. Its reaction down touched the intraday rally’s 2549.25 pullback limit. Twice. The news is now out, and the 2549.25-2550.75 range is still holding.

Not even a relief rally. How about a relief blip-up? A fresh high touching 2551.50 would raise the sell signal from 2548.00 up to 2549.50.

Nothing would require 2551.50 to hold, and any delay in reversing down from its test would be bullish. New highs are nearby, but keep stops tight as the pattern has been collapsing from this area.

Low’s retest holds. So far.

The post-open collapse from 2553.25 ended in a blip-down to 2543.00. Its 4-point reaction up was consolidated until the noon hour. That’s when the consolidation finally resolved down, piercing the morning’s low by 1 tick and neutralizing its oversold RSIs.

The door was open to extending down. Remember, there’s no unfinished business above, and probing under yesterday’s 2539.25 low could launch a new downleg. Noon hour noise may have helped to avoid all of that, as it recovered up to 2548.00.

Holding an extreme’s retest is difficult to break during the same session. The post-open collapse’s low was retested during the noon hour, and their interim high was probed. So the door is open to extending higher, too.

Back under 2545.00 would start to signal that more fresh lows are coming. And more fresh lows coming in this pattern would be very bearish. Meanwhile, a bounce up to 2550.00 is likely.

Fluctuating at the morning’s lows.

The post-open dive to 2544.00 has been tested once. RSIs diverged positively on a dip to 2543.25 that reacted up to 2547.00. But no higher. And that was into the morning’s morning’s bias environment exit.

The noon hour dipped back down into a narrow 2545.00-2546.00 range. The Columbus holiday is still taking a toll on participation and volume.

Nevertheless, there remains potential today down to this morning’s 2541.00 bias objective. Any lower could extend down to 2535.00. Back above 2547.50 would start to signal fresh highs, regardless of unfinished business above — especially when there is unfinished business above at 2552.00.