Mid-day Update

Narrow intraday range.

Gapping down to attack yesterday’s low was the most relevant feature to today’s range. The test held, although it wasn’t really a test. Anyway, the post-open bounce has been testing yesterday’s highs. Not the overnight highs, but yesterday’s slightly lower intraday high.

It’s not a very wide range, and it’s not very interesting price action. In fact, it’s now two consecutive no-bias signals on an “inside day.” Trending before the afternoon bias environment begins lapsing would be suspicious.

Trending after the afternoon bias environment begins lapsing would be credible for extending. Dipping under 2492.00 could test or attack 2488.00 and then collapse into the close. Or not collapse — nothing is required, which is the difficulty of a no-bias inside day.

Shallow morning pullback recovers to resume the rally.

The corrective dip from 2482.00 was shallower than it was brief. Its potential to 2477.50 was barely attacked to within 5 ticks. A narrow range there finally resolved up as the bias environment began lapsing.

Extending higher through the noon hour touched 2487.00. This afternoon’s 2484.75 bias-up signal triggered, putting into play its 2490.00 bias-up target. There has yet to be a fresh high.

Let’s clarify what today’s test of July’s “pivotal high” means, and what it doesn’t mean. As with any pivotal high test, the actual high is now all but assured to be tested, too. That’s 2486.00 basis Dec and 2488.00 basis Sep, and both have been pierced by 3 ticks. It’s also almost 2491.00 basis S&P Cash (SPX) which is still 1 point away.

I first addressed the pivotal high’s attack on the last rally leg. Testing it and entrenching the uptrend then would have made the next upleg likely to probe significantly higher. Last Tuesday’s drop created a new downleg. Its distribution has changed the reliability of a new high having substantial consequences. It’s not ruled out, but it’s not as likely.

Meanwhile,remember that today’s upleg is NOT a session-long rally. Regardless of how it has behaved so far, or how it might still behave, its setup wasn’t optimal. Afternoon stagnation or even reversal down is still possible.

Still stuck in negative territory.

[PROGRAMMING NOTE #1: I haven’t heard of a single issue with Adobe’s chaRTroom update. Please let me know otherwise.]

[PROGRAMMING NOTE #2: There’s a chance of my being absent Monday. I’ll know for certain before tomorrow’s Saturday Review.]

The open didn’t trend down. It’s initial spike down to 2456.75 was recovered entirely back up to the 2459.25 open, which is also this morning’s bias-down signal. Holding its test had put into play an offsetting test of its 2466.00 bias-up signal, which was attacked to within 1 point at 2465.00.

Coming within 1 tick of coming within 3 ticks of the objective usually wouldn’t neutralize it. More so, overbought RSIs there require its eventual retest. This afternoon’s no-bias environment would be a good opportunity to accomplish that.

But remember than not trending down in the morning would be likely then only to tread water while being vulnerable to an afternoon collapse. That “unfinished business above” won’t be a deal killer if the bias environment is exited under a relevant level — like under 2459.25 — which could unleash the vulnerability to collapsing into the weekend.

Bouncing back down to session lows.

This morning’s 9-point drop to 2460.00 avoided both triggering bias-down and rejecting it. Its noN-bias environment’s sharp 7-point was impressive, but also retraced entirely. The noon hour’s retest of the morning’s low attacked this afternoon’s 2459.25 bias-down signal to within 1 tick. And also failed to trigger.

But this is a no-bias environment. If tested, 2459.25 should define the window’s lower-end. But not after the bias environment begins lapsing, or even comes within view. Hovering near the lows under 2464.00 would keep selling pressure well-positioned to easily unload into the close. No news would be needed — just the overnight and morning recovery attempts being abandoned.

Otherwise, back above 2466.00 would start to signal that the overnight and post-open drops had been absorbed. A retest of last Friday’s range above would be targeted. Trading out the session within its current range isn’t likely.

Hovering at pre-open highs.

This morning’s bias-up environment was triggered after having tested its 2466.75 bias-up target. Reacting down only attacked its 2461.00 bias-up signal by 10:30. It was probed under 2459.00 — twice. But it was too late to trend down, since the bias-up signal must define the bias-up environment’s lower-end. So, 2461.00 was recovered while the bias environment lapsed.

And the recovery extended through the noon hour, attacking the morning’s highs. But this afternoon’s bias parameter triggered noN-bias. The 2465.50 bias-up signal was still being overlapped at both 1:20 AND 1:30. This is not a bias-up environment with a bias-up target in-play, or a no-bias environment required to hold the bias-up signal.

Having said that, noN-bias environments often behave like no-bias and hold the bias signal. More so, hovering at the bias signal often breaks through it when the bias environment begins lapsing. But dipping back under 2463.50 would start to signal a retest of this morning’s lows underway.