Mid-day Update

Mission now is to hold up through the close.

The morning’s bias environment was entered in reaction down from having tested its 2465.75 bias-up target. The pullback reaction only attacked its 2462.00 pullback limit where any deeper would have reversed the trend down. Overbought RSIs attracted price back up to fresh highs.

The fresh highs tested this afternoon’s 2467.75 bias-up signal. At 1:20 and still at 1:30. So, this is now a noN-bias environment. Not a bias-up with a required target. And not a no-bias unlikely to probe higher.

noN-bias often behaves like a no-bias, and then like bias-up when the bias environment lapses. That’s if the bias environment is spent hovering around the bias-up signal. Often enough, noN-bias reacts sharply toward the other bias signal.

Back under 2465.50 would start to signal momentum reversing down. There would be potential down to the 2462.00 bias-down signal, but no requirement to hold it. The only requirement outstanding is for a new trend high close — maybe today.

Fresh lows probed too late to gain traction.

This morning’s 2453.25 bias-down signal was pierced, probed and poked all the way down to 2450.00 through the open. But it held through 10:15 and 10:30 to trigger no-bias. An offsetting test of the 2459.75 bias-up signal is in-play.

It almost wasn’t. Exiting the bias environment at 11:30 under its bias-down target would have invalidated whatever had been triggered at 10:15. In fact, back under 2451.75 signaled a move underway likely targeting the 2448.25 bias-down target. Its test held, and the “no-bias trending” was recovered up to unchanged at 2456.50.

This afternoon’s no-bias environment has room up to its 2458.25 bias-up signal before becoming no-bias trending, too. Breaking out to the “unfinished business above” at 2459.75 and probably higher can begin when the bias environment is lapsing at 2:30. Otherwise, back under 2452.25 would start to signal another downleg underway targeting 2440.00.

Piercing higher, but not extending.

Since reacting up from the open’s 2454.25 low, the session has essentially trended up in several relatively wide swings. The noon hour’s exit reached a high probing 3 ticks above this afternoon’s 2459.75 bias-up signal.

But 2459.75 held. So, this afternoon is a no-bias environment. This morning was a no-bias environment, too. That didn’t prevent probing higher, but it hasn’t helped remaining higher — let alone extending. And now each of today’s intraday swings have overlapped the same 2459.00 bounce limit that was enacted at Friday’s close.

Back under 2457.50 would suggest this afternoon’s bias environment will be exited in decline. Extending down this afternoon would still target at least a test of “lower prior highs” at 2450.00. Otherwise, fresh session highs would be credible for extending higher, probably to 2464.00-2465.00, and possibly higher.

Near-term and longstanding targets met.

This morning’s bias-up signal triggered, putting into play its 2452.25 bias-up target. Consolidating up to 2450.00 into the noon hour finally broke higher to meet it.

This morning’s target? That’s nothing. The MONTH-OLD “unfinished business above” at 2454.00 was met, too. And the delay in meeting 2454.00 suggested also testing its room for noise above it at 2456.50. Which is also this afternoon’s bias-up target, and was just met to within 3 ticks.

There is no “unfinished business above.” Only one condition can create any new unfinished business above — closing above prior highs, today, because today is a Friday. Otherwise, having neutralized its target, exiting the bias environment at 2:30 under 2451.50 would be vulnerable to collapsing into the weekend.

Sitting at session highs. Still.

The post-open bounce got to only 2445.00 as duplicating yesterday’s reaction to Yellen’s testimony. Overnight action had peaked 6 ticks higher at 2446.50. But without gapping up, morning strength would be vulnerable to retracement.

And it was retraced, even reversed momentarily. The 2442.00 bias-up signal had triggered, but then it was invalidated down to 2439.00 through 10:30.

The reversal didn’t extend down, and lasted only long enough to form a Symmetrical Triangle. Its break higher peaked at 2445.00 — only as productive as the open. Fresh highs during the noon hour touched 2446.50 — only as productive as the overnight rally. And within 3 ticks of this morning’s bias-up target, anyway.

Buyers have accomplished nothing, as dictated by the template of not gapping up from yesterday’s pattern. The rally could resume after the bias environment lapses. Meanwhile, a dip is testing 2443.50, where a valid break would renew potential down to 2437.50 and lower.