Mid-day Update

Still hovering off the morning high.

This morning’s 5-point reaction down from attacking 2443.00 has persisted through much of the morning’s bias environment and noon hour. Now the afternoon bias environment seems stuck.

The 2441.00 bias-up signal was tested — barely, but it has held. Back under 2437.50 would still credible for a deeper dip, to 2433.00 or 2430.50. Extending higher anyway would be no-bias trending and doomed to failure.

Politics derails the morning’s recovery.

Testing and holding this morning’s 2421.50 bias-down signal had put into play an offsetting test of the 2428.00 bias-up signal. The upside objective was attacked to within 2 points, and then retested just as headlines triggered a 16-point plunge to 2410.25.

Exiting the bias environment beyond its bias target would have invalidated whatever may have been put into play by holding that bias signal. So, not recovering back above the 2415.50 bias-down target through 11:30-noon would have invalidated the 2428.00 objective, which was put into play by holding 2421.50 through 10:15.

In fact, the noon hour was attacking 2421.00. So, a test of 2428.00 has become “unfinished business above.” It need not be met today — back under 2416.75 would start to signal a retest of the lows underway, as required by its oversold RSIs.

This afternoon’s 2414.75-2422.25 bias signals weren’t touched or triggered. Either should define the no-bias environment if tested. Probing beyond either during the no-bias environment would require being retraced.

If the upside attraction isn’t re-established already when the bias environment begins lapsing, then another dip would be very likely. Just retesting today’s low and filling the gap back to Friday’s Thursday’s 2408.00 close just below it could launch a recovery. Not holding their test would be likely to probe fresh lows down to 2499.00 and 2493.00.

Upholding session highs.

Potential for extending this morning’s rally to 2428.00 was fulfilled to within 3 ticks during the bias environment. It was probed by 3 ticks during the noon hour. And now it was overlapped during the afternoon bias timing window.

2428.00 being the afternoon’s bias-up signal, still overlapping it at both 1:20 and 1:30 has triggered noN-bias. Most noN-bias environments behave like a no-bias, holding the bias-up signal’s test. Some would extend higher to fulfill the 2433.00 despite it not being put into play.

Rejecting the bias-up signal’s test isn’t required by a noN-bias or a no-bias, not when triggered during the afternoon. But a reaction down is still possible, and would be very credible back under 2426.00 for reversing the trend down aggressively.

Reversing down would likely be aggressively, anyway, to offset the delay. But although this morning’s no-bias environment’s upper-end defined by its 2426.50 bias-up signal, its probe above Friday’s 2425.00 high wasn’t isolated. And the open’s isolation of the overnight probe ran into a bullish setup by holding/overlapping tests of Friday’s 2421.50 and 2423.00 prior lows.

Extending higher would next target 2433.00, and still qualify as a corrective bounce. Back under 2426.00 would signal the corrective bounce had ended.

Advancing gradually.

Today’s gap up has extended. Fluctuating 2-3 points around the 2413.75 opening print broke higher when the bias environment began lapsing at 11:30. Testing 2424.00 into the noon hour then consolidated narrowly into the afternoon bias environment.

This afternoon’s 2423.00 bias-up signal triggered, barely, by a tick or two. It avoided triggering the grace period, barely, by a 1-minute 1-tick margin. And price soon probed higher, barely, attacking 2425.25 resistance and now fluctuating around the noon hour’s 2424.25 high.

Barely can be enough, and remaining in positive territory today is certainly a possibility. But sellers aren’t marginalized since the open didn’t gap up enough. We’re still monitoring for possibly repeating the recent pattern of intraday directional reversals. That’s difficult on a Friday, but it can be unstoppable if started.

Bounce stops short of signaling recovery.

This morning’s 12-point drop to 2410.25 was retraced almost entirely through the noon hour’s exit. The open’s 2422.25 high was attacked to within 3 ticks. At that same time, this afternoon’s 2420.50 bias-up signal was being tested. Tested within 3 minutes of the 1:20 bias timing window, invoking the grace period.

And still being tested at 1:30 to avoid triggering altogether. This is a noN-bias environment. Not a bias-up with a higher target in-play. And not a no-bias that would be unlikely to probe higher. But a noN-bias.

noN-bias environments often behave like a no-bias, and don’t extend higher. Hovering at or around the bias-up signal until the bias environment begins lapsing at 2:30 then often breaks higher as if its trigger were delayed.

Already, though, this afternoon’s noN-bias environment is suggesting something different. It has reacted down 6 points to 2415.50. Sellers were never going to be marginalized in today’s pattern, and always capable of retaking control — not simply correcting or retracing the mid-day bounce, but resuming the decline to 2399.00 and potentially also 2393.00.