Mid-day Update

Afternoon bias-up triggered.

That potential up to “higher prior lows” at 2775.00? It was met before the bias environment was even within view of lapsing — 10 points ago. The noon hour was entered at 2781.00, this afternoon’s 2782.50 bias-up signal has triggered, and fresh highs are testing 2785.00. The 2788.00 bias-up target is in-play.

The nearest sell signal would trigger under 2780.50. Which is pretty aggressive, especially for this being a bias-up environment. But as extended as today’s rally has become, any stumble would suggest a deeper detour underway, perhaps only to test this afternoon’s 2774.75 bias-down signal.

Meanwhile, upside momentum remains intact. And fresh highs since 1:20 should at least require any pullback to recover.

Choppy morning stuck around the open, but that window is done.

If only 3 of the first hour’s 15-minute checkpoints had overlapped the same relevant level, then we would still have suspected a Dry Cleaners morning. There were 4-5 overlaps today at 2732.00, to which every leg and trending attempt has returned.

That was the morning bias environment. This is the afternoon.

Trending down since the bias environment began lapsing at 11:30 has returned to within 1 tick of the morning’s next lower objective at 2727.25. The leg’s timing held a test of this afternoon’s 2729.00 bias-down target as support. This is a bias-down environment, but its target was met instead of renewing the bias-down signal.

Back under 2727.25 would nevertheless put into play the next lower objective at 2720.50. Meanwhile, the bias-down environment has room to fluctuate as noise back up to its 2735.50 bias-down signal.

Steady corrective bounce does not equal durable recovery.

Since meeting this morning’s 2741.75 low, recovering through the bias environment ext and noon hour has touched 2761.25. But the 2758.00 bias-up signal was still being touched within 3 minutes of the 1:20 bias timing window, invoking the grace period.

It held, and this is a no-bias environment.

The decline isn’t required to resume today. But it would have potential to 2733.75 and 2715.00. If it resumes. Otherwise, the stair-stepping rally off the lows could extend into the bias environment’s exit.

Relevant support break maintained.

This morning’s 2777.25 bias-down target was probed by 2 points. Its reaction up to 2784.25 was reversed back down through 2777.25 as the bias environment lapsed. And despite holding a test of this afternoon’s 2771.00 bias-down signal to trigger noN-bias, the break under 2777.25 was maintained.

The door is now open to extending the decline down to its next objective at 2753.50.

There was no bullish reason to have revisited 2777.25 last week, nor to repeat its test today. Isolating its test now requires closing back above a prior relative high, which at this point in the pattern is essentially 2784.25.

Meanwhile, the pattern is more vulnerable to resuming and extending the decline, without any requirement to await the bias window lapsing, since this is a noN-bias environment.

Narrow choppy range persists.

My earlier warning remains as true, and its note remains on the chaRTroom screen: Be cautious with entries and sizing. This is still a no-bias environment, and still lacks an attraction. Which explains why price action remains within yesterday’s 2783.00-2795.00 final hour range — with one brief probe above it to 2796.00 before noon.

Now fresh afternoon lows are testing the 2788.00 bias-down signal. It should define the window’s low, and 1-minute RSI is making a higher low. So, the narrow range may be getting narrower.

The afternoon bias environment is the last pure intraday window. The final 60-90 minutes starts becoming more vulnerable to forward-looking influences. If the range does break in either direction, I would expect higher because sellers haven’t exploited 2-3 opportunities to resolve down. But any break higher would still be vulnerable to resolving down.