Mid-day Update

Limited upside attraction finds air pocket below.

No complexity to the 2719.75 overnight high had relieved it from requiring intraday retest. But I was giving a retest a benefit of the doubt so long as the 2811.75 earlier Globex low held as support. Which it did, easily, well before the 2815.50 open that also tested the 2717.50 bias-up target.

The 2815.50 open even maintained its gap up to form an anchor that would rescue an attempted decline. Which it did, after retesting the 2811.75 earlier Globex low. But the rescue didn’t extend higher. And the rescue filled the 2715.50 opening gap after probing back into last Monday’s “lower prior highs.” And the anchor’s rescue quality had been neutralized. All after having met the 2717.50 bias-up target.

No “unfinished business” above didn’t require reversing down, not after triggering late bias-up. But the market collapsed anyway. Probing under the 2809.75 bias-up signal during the bias-up environment had required its retracement — until the bias environment lapsed under the 2798.25 bias-down signal to establish that sellers were stronger-handed.

Persistently oversold 3-minute RSI continually warned against buying dips or getting too exposed to bounces. But now RSIs have diverged into the eventual 2767.50 low. Late no-bias has rejected tests of both the 2769.25 and 2777.00 bias-down parameters. And their reaction is testing 2781.50 with potential to 2790.75.

Bigger picture: Today’s fresh high creates a new prior relative low from Wednesday’s dip to 2775.00. Closing under it would signal the trend reversing down. These are often defended, so a second confirming close would be required. But not already rejecting its test this afternoon could very well end the day far below it.

Post-open collapse holds the gap.

“Unfinished business” has been outstanding all week back up to Monday’s 2807.75 opening gap. No trend reversal would be very credible without first neutralizing the attraction above. Neutralizing the attraction above wouldn’t require reversing down.

The gap was filled soon after today’s open. Resistance there was likely to react down. A reaction down still could recover to resume rallying up to 2812.50 or 2817.50. The gap-fill’s reaction down wasn’t interested in higher attractions.

Trending back down through the bias environment reached its first support at 2796.00, whose influence caused a 45-minute consolidation. Resolving down soon reached its next support at 2787.50 — the 61.8% retracement of the structure containing yesterday’s cash session close. Its influence had more intent, reversing price up immediately and through the noon hour.

Extending to 2798.25 easily triggered this afternoon’s 2793.50 bias-up signal. Its 2800.50 bias-up target is in-play. Fresh highs above the bounce’s pre-1:20 high haven’t yet printed to confirm, but hovering there still suggests the uptrend remains intact. However, back under 2794.00 would signal momentum already reversing down.

Fridays are notorious for expending their influence in the morning. Whatever it accomplishes, or doesn’t accomplish, often creates the session’s extreme. This morning’s reaction down tested yesterday’s close, but hadn’t quite rejected it by noon when the bias environment had finished lapsing. Another downleg can’t be dismissed, whether or not preceded by 2800.50.

Sloppy and choppy prevail.

The overnight range was contained entirely within yesterday’s range. And now this morning and noon hour have been contained within the overnight range. Price action is getting less volatile, not more so.

Neither of this afternoon’s bias signals was touched — not even attacked — and now this is a no-bias environment. Trending attempted at 2:30 as the bias environment begins lapsing would be credible for extending int the close.

Otherwise without an artificial catalyst, the pattern indicates no sponsorship. It has no requirement to resolve in either direction, or to resolve today at all.

Recovery from significant support is almost fully rejected.

The post-open collapse down to 2777.00 held a retest down to 2775.00 while 1-minute RSI diverged positively. Their 2782.00 interim high was recovered as price action grinded back up to 2790.75 during the noon hour. Surging out of the noon hour reached 2795.00.

But this afternoon’s 2792.75 bias-up signal was being overlapped at both 1:20 and 1:30 to avoid triggering. This is a noN-bias environment. Not bias-up with a target in-play, and not no-bias resisted by its bias-up signal. There is no restriction against extending higher, and sellers are all but marginalized.

Another downleg could get underway, but it would be difficult. It can’t be overstated how meaningful it is to isolate the open’s test of significant support. And overbought RSIs at the 2795.00 high would inhibit reversing down.

Still, a recovery can’t be signaled until the close, and even another fresh session high would remain vulnerable to being rejected. But maintaining another fresh high through the bias environment lapsing would become extra-vulnerable to a bullish short-squeeze through the close.

Morning’s volatility meets afternoon’s no-bias signal.

Holding a test of this morning’s 2791.50 bias-down signal through 10:15 had put into play an offsetting test of the 2802.00 bias-up signal. Volatility and false starts wasn’t surprising — already suggested by the pre-open patterns we discussed during the Market Tour.

Opening at 2701.50 and rallied to 2800.00, including an extra tick after 10:15 which usually confirms the bigger picture.

The bigger picture got bigger with a quick dip to 2789.50. It was recovered and reversed as quickly up to 2802.00 during the bias environment. Its retest held and the noon hour was entered back under the morning’s high.

This afternoon’s 2794.00 bias-down signal held as support through 1:20 to trigger no-bias. An offsetting test of the bias-up signal is not required. Probing under the bias-down signal is unlikely, but probing under it would target 2780.00 and require being retraced. Probing the bias window either way any later could extend in that direction.