Mid-day Update

Bias-up target’s probe rejected, for now.

Gapping up to 2442.25 quickly extended through the 2443.50 bias-up target and held on to renew the bias-up signal. The setup is very reliable for extending higher through the morning, and also for printing its session high in the afternoon.

None of which mattered today.

Despite holding up through the first hour, price suddenly collapsed down to the 2438.00 bias-up signal. It was soon probed by 4 points, but recovered as the bias environment was lapsing. As it should — it was still a bias-up environment, so the bias signal should define window’s lower-end if tested.

The recovery has extended through the noon hour to 2441.50. The bias-up signal 1 point higher wasn’t touched. The recovery can extend back to and through the morning’s highs. Can, and should, so long as 2437.00 holds as support.

Hovering at bias environment extreme.

This morning’s no-bias signal had held a test of the 2428.50 bias-down signal, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2436.25 bias-up signal. Which was fulfilled.

Its test was likely to include 2437.50. Overbought RSIs there required a retest. that inhibited selling, which barely dipped 2 points.Fresh highs during the noon hour neutralized the overbought RSIs without creating another one.

Now we’re in another no-bias environment. This afternoon’s 2439.00 bias-up signal is being attacked to within 1 tick. If tested, it should define the bias environment’s upper-end. Hovering here into its exit could start ticking higher, and then rally into the close.

Otherwise, there’s still room down to the 2433.00 bias-down signal, all keeping within the no-bias environment. Not dipping soon would be less likely to break lower later — not altogether unlikely, sellers aren’t marginalized, but less likely.

Retesting a prior high.

This morning’s no-bias signal triggered after a relatively narrow opening range. Breaking higher during the no-bias environment held tests of the 2437.50 bias-up signal, as it should.

2437.50  has held through the noon hour and now into the afternoon bias environment, too. It’s also testing 2438.00, which has been relevant resistance. It was Monday’s post-close blip-up. And its retest defined yesterday’s pre-open high.

Now 2438.00 has defined this morning’s high, and it’s still being tested.

It could be probed up to 2441.75. But back under 2436.00 would start to signal this morning’s bounce — and the noon hour’s firming — have attracted stronger sellers to probe under yesterday’s 2428.00 low.

Attracted back down to the lows.

The market doesn’t seem very comfortable rallying. That’s neither new nor surprising. This has been the market’s pattern at highs, and also the anticipation of its continued response to highs. Monday was a high, neutralizing the last outstanding structural requirement — a new trend high close. Direction reversed quickly.

This morning’s attempt to extend the overnight recovery wasn’t a new high. But it met the same discomfort that opened the window below. And now the afternoon’s bias-down has triggered under 2433.00.

This morning’s 2430.50 low is being retested. This afternoon’s 2428.50 bias-down target is in-play. It could be probed down to 2425.00 and still be in the context of only a pullback. Anything deeper would be recoverable, but with increasing difficulty. Back above 2436.25

Opening slide resumes, extends. And ends?

Extending the pre-open slide down to 2441.50 was likely. In fact, its test defined the open’s low. Reacting up 4 points was impressive, and confirmed the level’s relevance. But the open wasn’t recovered, let alone positive territory.

Exiting the morning’s bias environment back at the open’s low created a new objective down to 2437.75. Its test has reacted up sharply to test the morning’s “higher prior lows” up to 2442.50. Its catalyst was the start of a tax reform speech by House Speaker Ryan.

The speech’s timing helped to isolate the probe under this morning’s low to the noon hour — the noon hour was entered above the morning’s low, and exited back above it. This setup can be a very powerful reversal.

First things, first… attract new sponsorship. Too deep of another detour and too long of a delay in extending the recovery, would suggest new sponsorship isn’t being attracted. Entering the top of the hour back above 2444.00 would be helpful, if not also optimal, and could extend back above yesterday’s highs.