Mid-day Update

Bias-up target in-play.

This morning’s rally ultimately surged to 2450.00 as the bias environment began. The bias environment exit dipped to 2443.75. That one-hour pullback is today’s only pullback, so far.

Attracted by overbought RSIs at the high, price action since then has trended back up. Extending through the noon hour and into this afternoon’s bias environment just attacked 2451.00. Now RSIs are NOT overbought.

Room for noise above 2445.00 ends at 2453.00. Overlapping it could fulfill this afternoon’s 2454.00 bias-up target (even if only to within 3 ticks). Vulnerability to reversing down is high, but meanwhile at least one new high close remains as “unfinished business above.”

Hovering through the noon hour.

This morning’s late bias-down made it to 2420.25 before bouncing back up through the 2425.25 bias-down signal to 2427.00 by noon,and to 2428.50 during the noon hour.

Neither afternoon bias signal was touched as price dipped to 2425.25. This is a no-bias environment.

The bearish WedEX influence can’t prevent probing above 2428.50, but it should lead to reversing back down before the close. This morning’s 2418.75 bias-down target is now “unfinished business below,” and a likely objective.

Back above 2430.50 would start to suggest a more significant bounce underway — which would undermine the afternoon’s bearish influence.

Morning’s new low recovers to yesterday’s low.

The open’s wider and wider ranging eventually included a retest of the 2416.50 overnight low. It was pierced by a single tick. Which was just enough to satisfy the pattern’s structural requirement for a new low.

Rallying 12 points from there to 2428.25 and higher doesn’t change whether other attractions below remains outstanding. This morning’s selling stopped optimistically short of fulfilling the first of it at 2415.50. Testing it this morning was already jeopardized by recovering 2421.50. Back under 2424.00 would already start signaling fresh lows are back in-play.

Meanwhile, the recovery could extend up to 2433.00. The longer that takes to develop — without breaking back under 2424.00 and 2421.50 — would leave less time to resolve down today. And that would open the door to bouncing further before tomorrow afternoon’s bearish WedEX becomes influential.

Defensively postured. Sort of.

A small capitulative leg completed this morning’s test of its 2433.00 objective. Its attraction below is neutralized. The reaction up tested 2436.00 and 2438.00 a couple of times each. An inflection point at 2437.50 was tested, but not triggered.

Anxiousness ahead of the 2:00 ET FOMC announcement is the likely culprit for only consolidating. Neutralizing the attraction below is not an optimal position of strength to greet the news. Upside potential remains intact anyway, due to the proximity to Friday’s 2443.50 high and having stopped pessimistically short of touching it pre-open.

The 2:30 Q&A by Fed chair Yellen will also be influential to price action. All of the day’s surprises should be resolved by the time of our 3:33 Market Wrap.

Trending up through the noon hour, to resistance.

If this morning’s dip to the 2429.25 bias-up signal were going to break lower, then it needed to avoid recovering the 2433.00 open. But the bias environment was exited back up at 2433.00. And if the recovery were valid for ending the post-open pullback, then it would extend higher through the noon hour. Which it did.

The noon hour extended higher as far as possible without putting into play any higher objective. Or any objective. This afternoon’s 2436.75 bias-up signal was probed by 1 point, but it was still being overlapped at both 1:20 and 1:30 to avoid triggering.

The afternoon bias environment is not no-bias, and not bias-up. It is noN-bias. Usually, the noN-bias environment behaves like a no-bias, holding resistance. Unlike the usual no-bias environment, noN-bias tends to cling to the bias signal — and often breaks it when the bias environment begins lapsing.

So, unless a pullback limit were violated and an inflection point were to reverse momentum down, the rally is positioned to resume today. Shallow weakness for now would be helpful, but back under 2432.00 would start signaling another downdraft underway.