Mid-day Update

Noon hour hovers at the highs.

Treating this morning’s invalidated no-bias as a late bias-up paid off. Its 2435.75 bias-up target was met. Also, last night’s “new Globex trend extreme” has been attacked to within 1 tick. Stopping pessimistically short has helped to avoid reacting down. The noon hour has instead hovered narrowly at the highs.

Back under 2433.25 would still be credible for reversing the trend down (or at least for trying). Regardless, trending down into the weekend should have been obvious going into the afternoon bias environment, which it was not. Already deteriorating into the bias environment exit would get a benefit of the doubt.

Meanwhile, don’t forget about the Friday Factors. Exiting the afternoon bias environment at session highs can indicate that sellers are marginalized for the day. Shorting fresh afternoon highs at that point can prove very costly.

Noon hour rally, target nearly met.

This morning’s 2416.50 bias-up signal held through 10:15 to avoid triggering, which put into play an offsetting test of its 2408.00 bias-down signal. Never happened. In fact, the opening 15 minutes 2412.75 low was never touched again.

2416.50 still defined the bias environment’s upper-end. Until it started lapsing. Then a breakout compensated for its delay. Another 2 points were added between the noon hour exit to 2425.50, and the afternoon bias environment entry at 1:30. It has improved to within 3 ticks of the 2426.50 bias-up target.

Reversing down immediately is possible. This pattern’s top remains vulnerable if not also likely to appear abrupt in retrospect. That turn could take a little more time to develop than this, but it’s not required. Meanwhile, closing today above 2424.25 (and confirmed tomorrow) would signal a much bigger rally leg underway — despite the recent narrow range not forming an optimal base.

Range-bound ahead of the 2:00 Beige Book release.

The first half-hour’s 12-point dive to fresh relative lows at 2402.75 has since consolidated. The 2410.50 minimum likely bounce target was attacked to within 1 tick. The narrowing range has formed a Symmetrical Triangle centered just under 2408.50.

This is a no-bias environment. Trending under its 2404.25 bias-down signal is unlikely, and would be called “no-bias trending” that requires being retraced. So, back under 2405.75 would could still test “lower prior highs” at 2399.00, while being likely to recover.

Breaking lower after the bias environment starts lapsing would still be capable of recovering from 2399.00. But it’s recovery wouldn’t be required, which makes it less likely. Fresh lows can be avoided altogether by rallying out of the bias environment above 2410.50.

Long-standing target met, still testing.

The 2415.00 renewed bias-up target was met this morning up to 2416.50. It was never probed higher than its first 3 minutes. And only one 1-minute bar is both detached from it and also printing a fresh high.

RSIs had diverged negatively along the way up, and again at the high. Price action since then has been under pressure. Dipping into the noon hour attacked 2410.00, where the first negative divergence had developed.

Bouncing into the noon hour’s exit attacked this afternoon’s 2415.75 bias-up signal to within 1 tick. It didn’t trigger. Consolidating back down to 2412.50 is threatening to launch an afternoon downleg, which almost any lower would trigger.

Otherwise, back above 2415.00 would start to signal the rally is extending. That’s still unlikely, if only because it’s difficult to attract reinforcements with the weekend looming — let alone a 3-day weekend. Tomorrow would be more vulnerable to a short-squeeze, but today still has some luxury of time allowing buyers to be patient.

Extremely narrow range.

The open’s blip-up to 2400.50 reacted down immediately to 2397.50, and then eventually to 2396.75. Ultimately, the 2399.00 bias-up signal holding its test put into play an offsetting test of the 2391.00 bias-down signal. That has become “unfinished business below.”

It’s difficult to snap back down without first popping up vigorously. So, it’s difficult to give the downside attractions — including 2393.50 — much near-term credibility. The minimum structural requirement was fulfilled by probing yesterday’s high, for however briefly. But sponsorship is missing all around.

FOMC Minutes will be released shortly. It might be the catalyst for triggering trending, or for triggering a false break that does snap back in the opposite direction. Any trending that begins during this afternoon’s no-bias environment is likely to be retraced.