Mid-day Update

Resistance is holding, and being retested .

This morning’s 2396.25 bias-up signal was being probed at 10:30, but not exceeded by enough to invalidate having signaled no-bias at 10:15.

The balance of the bias environment tested 2396.25 as resistance. Never enough to by become “no-bias trending,” but neither was it rejected. The offsetting test of this morning’s 2388.75 bias-down signal is “unfinished business below.”

That didn’t prevent probing fresh highs into noon. Attacking this afternoon’s 2399.75 bias-up signal was reversed to attack 2395.00. This is a no-bias environment, too.

Fresh highs would have room up to 2401.00, if not also to probe it, while still being vulnerable to reversing down sharply.

Don’t. Look. Down.

Double-topping this morning at 2391.75 didn’t prevent triggering the 2386.50 bias-up signal, or putting into play its 2392.00 bias-up target. But it did allow a pullback to test the overnight range down to 2385.00.

Firming into the bias environment exit extended into the noon hour, probing 2392.00 by 5 ticks. The balance of the noon hour ranged narrowly back down to this afternoon’s 2391.50 bias-up signal.

Bias-up didn’t trigger, nor was it rejected. This is a noN-bias environment. Trending either way is possible, but not common. Regardless, trending isn’t signaled.

This is an uncomfortable window not to have an objective in-play.  Somewhat like Bugs Bunny’s nemesis Wile E. Coyote being led speedily off the edge of a cliff. His lateral momentum briefly suspends him in mid-air, before gravity takes over. The moment in between resembles this afternoon’s bias environment.

Back under 2389.50 would start to signal momentum reversing down. If confirmed and extended, 2381.00 and 2375.00 could be tested. Meanwhile, any bullish resolution won’t be signaled from under the 2393.25 high.

No signs yet of a bearish influence.

Trick question: What do we call a bias-up signal that is triggered by only 1 point? …Answer: Bias-up.

The WedEX influence begins sometime between noon and 1:30, i.e. the morning’s bias environment and noon hour fully lapsing. This window began at 2383.00 and extended up to 2386.50. Its reaction down to 2383.25 was recovered in time to trigger the 2383.75 bias-up signal at 1:20.

Triggering bias-up is in conflict with this afternoon’s bearish WedEX influence. Back under 2383.75 at 1:30 would have invalidated bias-up signal. Too late for that. Reversing down anyway under 2382.50 would still be credible for extending down and behaving bearishly, regardless of it leaving “unfinished business above.”

Closing above the 2383.00 noon hour entry, and the 2385.50 1:30 print, would invalidate the bearish WedEX. Reversing down hard from testing the afternoon’s 2389.50 bias-up target would be possible, but that pattern isn’t likely on a Friday afternoon. A successful bearish WedEX would more likely ignore the afternoon’s bias-up signal.

Open’s rally has yet to extend.

This morning’s 2368.25 bias-up target was attacked to within 2 ticks. It did not become “unfinished business above.” Attacking yesterday afternoon’s 2369.75 bias-down signal to within 2 points didn’t help it attract price the rest of the way, so its unfinished business above remains outstanding.

Narrow ranging broke lower when the morning’s bias environment began lapsing. The noon hour was entered testing this afternoon’s 2357.50 bias-down signal. Choppy ranging didn’t trigger it, and this is now a no-bias environment.

But like yesterday afternoon, the bias-down signal is still under attack. That had made us suspect a no-bias trending break was coming then. And it makes us suspect another one is coming now. First things, first — it would be triggered under 2358.25, targeting the 2350.00 area. Back above 2362.50 would start to signal a rally more likely into the close.

Still probing fresh lows.

This afternoon’s 2369.75 bias-down signal didn’t trigger. That hasn’t prevented probing under it anyway, which had become somewhat likely since its ongoing test wasn’t being rejected. This morning’s 2366.25 low has now been probed by 3 ticks.

That’s “no-bias trending,” which is doomed to failure. Breaking the bias-down signal too late must be retraced. Eventually. Often the same day or timing window. Sometimes much later, and from much lower.

Exiting the bias environment at 2:30 back above the bias-down signal would be a good start at a short-squeeze. Exiting above the 2374.75 prior high would be better. Regardless, the prior high’s recovery can’t wait for the final hour, or else the decline would be vulnerable to extending.

P.S. This cycle’s WedEX will trigger this afternoon. It’s signal isn’t obvious, which we’ll discuss later.