Mid-day Update

Sitting at the highs.

This morning’s rally extended up to 2402.25. Coincidentally, that was the first bar both printing a fresh high and not touching the 2401.00 renewed bias-up target. Its extreme sentiment didn’t attract reinforcement, and price retraced 4 points.

1-minute and 3-minute RSIs aren’t simultaneously overbought at the high, so its retest isn’t required. But the pullback is relatively shallow. The rally may have corrected through the passage of time, instead of the more traditional retracement.

A fresh high would have been credible for resuming the rally if preceding a bias-up triggered by 1:20 above 2401.00. But no-bias triggered, so anything above 2401.00 during a no-bias environment would be doomed to failure.

None of which prevents testing 2405.00, anyway. But under 2398.00 would extend the dip.

Distinctly separate gyrations in a narrow range don’t qualify.

The pre-open bounce up to 2391.50 had reversed into and out of the open. It extended to touch the 2384.25 overnight low. Reversing up from there touched the open’s 2389.75 high. That’s enough to qualify the action as being choppy, even without then retracing back down through the noon hour.

The noon hour’s retracement stopped 2 ticks short of touching this afternoon’s 2385.50 bias-down signal. This is a no-bias environment. Testing 2385.50 should define the environment’s lower-end.

More than a half-hour remains in the bias environment, and just drifting higher has room up to the 2391.75 bias-up signal. Back above 2388.00 would suggest that’s underway. And it had better be underway soon, or else risk new sellers exiting the bias environment in a break to new lows.

Noon hour bounce retraces much of the morning’s plunge.

The open’s 13-point plunge from 2392.00 was retraced to 2390.00 coming out of the noon hour. That triggered the 2388.00 bias-up signal. Already recovering 2383.50 and 2386.00 had suggested the downside momentum had lapsed.

But this morning’s 2391.75 bias-down signal must still be recovered through a relevant window to signal momentum reversing up. So, testing the 2394.25 bias-up target could be bullish, unless its test were reversed back under 2391.75 when the bias environment is lapsing.

Currently, the pre-1:20 high is now being probed, which helps greatly to ensure the bias-up target will become “unfinished business above” if left outstanding. There is meanwhile room to test 2386.00 as support before suggesting momentum may be reversing down.

Does this morning’s rally reflect a new sentiment?

Monday and Tuesday morning each trended down. Yesterday morning’s decline was despite having rallied overnight. This morning rallied, despite having remained under pressure overnight, and greeting the open in negative territory.

This afternoon’s 2398.00 bias-up signal wasn’t even attacked, but its nearby. Consolidating flat-to-higher for the next hour might convince market participants that these new highs aren’t being rejected. Exiting the bias environment probing fresh session highs would be credible for extending to new highs through the close.

Otherwise, a pullback has room down to this morning’s “lower prior highs” around 2392.50. Even this afternoon’s 2391.25 bias-down signal could be tested without reversing momentum down. But breaking under 2391.00 when the bias environment starts lapsing could trend down into the close.

Fresh highs retrace to unchanged, and momentarily lower.

The open touched 2400.00 to probe the highest intraday highs ever — 1 point above Friday’s post-close high, 2 points above Friday’s futures close, and 4 points above Friday’s cash session close. Also, almost 4 points under Sunday night’s high, and 5 points under the minimum objective.

So close. Too close? We already know the next higher objective(s) will be extra vulnerable to completing the rally, and to reversing the trend back down. Attracting new sponsorship to reach fresh highs should be difficult at this stage, and it is. Touching 2400.00 didn’t attract buyers, at least not enough to offset the reaction down into negative territory.

Touching 2392.00 after the afternoon bias environment had begun tried to invalidate not triggering the 2393.75 bias-down signal. I’m not giving that any benefit of the doubt. A fresh low could still test 2391.00 where a recovery would still be likely. But back above 2395.75 would start suggest the pullback was already ending.

There’s still room down to 2390.00 before suggesting something bigger underway, up from 2388.00. Buyers aren’t marginalized for the day, especially so long as dips are relatively shallow, and unable to probe much into negative territory.