Mid-day Update

Still no signs of capitulation.

This morning’s noN-bias environment extended down to 2389.75 until the bias environment began lapsing. The trend has since reversed up, attacking the 2395.00 bias-up signal. The signal was actually touched  minutes too soon to invoke the grace period. Exceeding 2395.00 through 1:30 would at least invalidate the afternoon’s no-bias signal.

Otherwise, 2395.00 should define the bias environment’s upper-end. Probing above it is possible, albeit doomed to failure for being “no-bias trending.” Backing-and-filling for an hour would be likelier, perhaps testing this morning’s low down to 2388.75.

Extending higher later remains possible, if not likely. Probing Sunday night’s high will continue to be the likely resolution unless this afternoon were to give this morning’s decline the credibility that it currently lacks.

Holding support at yesterday afternoon’s highs.

The pre-open and opening tests of 2390.75 reversed down through the first hour. Yesterday afternoon’s test of 2386.00 as resistance became this morning’s test as support. And it held. It continued holding through a noon hour test, too. Just dipping back under 2387.00 would signal momentum reversing down. It was tested by more than 1 point during the noon hour and held.

Unfinished business below from this morning at 2382.00 could be tested quickly if given another opportunity. Support at 2386.00 has been chipped away, and the next timing window’s retest would be likelier to break through it.

Speaking of which, the next timing window has arrived. The afternoon’s 2389.75 bias-up signal was touched at noon, and didn’t trigger. It’s being attacked now to within 3 ticks,and likely to define the bias environment’s upper-end if tested. This being Friday afternoon, breaking it at any time might deserve some benefit of the doubt. And a tight stop.

It wouldn’t be surprising for unfinished business below to be left behind. The afternoon may drift up in anticipation of getting the result it wants from this weekend’s French election. But the burden of proof is on buyers.

Post-open dip extends, temporarily.

The overnight rally to 2390.75 had been retraced to open at yesterday’s late 2386.00 high. Dipping from there attacked 2381.00 where yesterday’s FOMC statement had been greeted. The balance of the morning ranged sideways.

Plunging into the noon hour attacked yesterday’s 2375.50 to within 2 ticks. Just coming to within 3 ticks has neutralized the attraction to yesterday’s oversold RSIs. But it’s far from optimal, since the low’s “V” bottom is often retested. And that low also has room to be probed down to 2374.00 and 2371.50.

Bouncing 8 points slipped back only enough to attack this afternoon’s 2381.75 bias-down signal to within 1 tick at 1:20. It continued holding at 1:30. No-bias triggered.

No-bias isn’t preventing probing under the bias-down signal. Back above 2384.25 would signal a bigger bounce underway. Otherwise, whether during the no-bias environment or after it, there remains potential to retest this week’s lows.

If probing under yesterday’s lows was the stretch…

This morning’s 2378.00 bias-down target and unfinished business at 2377.25 were probed down to 2375.50. There’s still room down to 2374.00 if not also 2371.50.

They could be tested before the 2:00 FOMC statement. If not greeting the news above this morning’s 2383.50 high, then fresh low are likely in reaction to the news.

Global liquidity issues persist. The pre-FOMC anxiousness will eventually be replaced by pre-post-close earnings anxiousness. In between there is potential for a negative knee-jerk reaction to the news, and its snap back up to fresh session highs, into yesterday’s range.

It’s still possible for a break lower to extend, without recovering. It’s less likely, but the next lower objective would be the 2361.00 area. Rallying without a fresh low is possible, too. But the rubber band stretch might be lacking.

Recovering the open’s dip held resistance.

This morning’s 7-point plunge down to 2381.75 had consolidated into the bias environment lapsing. Rallying through the noon hour touched 2388.00, and held.

Testing 2388.00 wasn’t rejected — its 2-point reaction down hasn’t even probed its pullback limit by 3 ticks. But this afternoon’s 2386.50 bias-up signal didn’t trigger. And it could have. Not only did bias-up not trigger, but neither did no-bias. This is a noN-bias environment.

noN-bias means the bias-up signal isn’t required to define the window’s upper-end, although it often does. Nevertheless, a fresh high above 2388.00 would be credible for resuming the noon hour’s rally. This morning’s 2391.00 bias objective did become “unfinished business above.”

Meanwhile, back under 2385.00 would be credible for resuming the morning’s drop. Not only to its 2382.50 bias-down signal, but through yesterday’s ~2381.00 lows to 2377.25.