S&P
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2939.50 | 2941.50 |
| …would target | 2945.00 | 2947.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2932.75 | 2934.00 |
| …would target | 2925.75 | 2928.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… BIAS-DOWN.
Pre-open slip undoes overnight recovery attempt.
Gradually working higher from the 2935.75 overnight low had recovered to test yesterday’s 2944.50 cash session close by 1 point. But another news item triggered a spike down to 2939.00, greeting the open fluctuating around the 2941.50 bias-down signal.
The open spiked down immediately to 2936.00. A 4-point range has eked lower to touch the 2935.00 bias-down target. Bounces have tested buy signals, but always too early to be credible — either during a sizeable bounce limit test, or by the first reaction up from the previous trend’s extreme.
Back above 2939.00 would now be credible for recovering the 2941.50 open, if not also probing yesterday’s 2944.50 cash session close and higher. But back under 2936.00 would target a test of 2934.00 and lower. And by potentially exiting the bias environment under the open’s lows, an intraday recovery would become very unlikely.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… With, or without.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Two probes of fresh highs Sunday night attacking 2947.00 lacked the complexity to label them “new Globex trend extremes,” so they didn’t require intraday retest. That didn’t prevent fresh post-open highs, especially after an overnight dip to 2938.00 was recovered to avoid forming a bearish Globex-flip setup. Two bias-up signals triggered, but only the morning’s 2950.50 bias-up target was met. The afternoon’s 2954.25 bias-up target became “unfinished business,” attacked only to 2951.50. Perhaps it was anxiousness ahead of GOOGL’s post-close earnings that inhibited rallying higher, instead retracing to 2942.00 through the close.
Overnight action’s new info…
The anxiousness was well-founded as GOOGL’s miss plunged 100 points. That didn’t exactly inspire the market, which extended down to 2940.00 through early Globex. Poor economic news from China triggered a spike down to test 2936.00, which was mostly recovered through midnight. That has gradually recovered to attack 2944.00.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Tuesday’s econ calendar is very heavy with plenty of reports, and Wednesday’s calendar is very weighty with FOMC events. The quarterly earnings onslaught continues, and this stage continues shaping a different profile than the first round of reports. GE just surprised to the upside, but not enough by itself to recover yesterday’s unfinished business another 11 points higher. Several econ reports are staggered through the open that could either help or hinder a recovery. Maintaining an open in positive territory would be a good first step. Otherwise, the unfinished business above need not prevent a sizeable interim pullback — and last night’s probe under both Sunday night and Monday’s lows suggests some sort of pullback is nearing. Regardless, intraday trending will likely become inhibited again this afternoon ahead of post-close earnings due from AAPL.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2945.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2941.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2940.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2948.00 | 2949.75 |
| …would target | 2953.25 | 2955.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2939.75 | 2941.50 |
| …would target | 2933.25 | 2935.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Monday’s open had already shrugged off a threatened Globex-flip. Probing above Friday’s 2942.75 high Sunday night to 2946.75 would have been the rubber band stretch, 
and exiting the open under the 2939.00 Earlier Globex Low would have been the snap back down. But the pre-open test of 2939.00 was recovered before the open, negating the bearish setup.
Triggering the morning’s bias-up signal had left its 2950.50 bias-up target outstanding, but the noon hour neutralized it. Triggering the afternoon’s 2946.75 bias-up signal left its 2954.25 bias-up target outstanding. Attacking it up to 2951.50 didn’t prevent a late-afternoon drop back down to the morning’s 2944.50 bias-up signal as support. And lower through the close to 2941.75.
The session barely closed positive, but it closed positive. Anxiousness ahead of GOOGL’s post-close earnings was probably the culprit behind inhibiting the afternoon’s rally. Well-deserved inhibition, as GOOGL plunged 73 points just minutes after my pre-open update noted Monday’s suspiciously late bounce to 1293.00. That’s now history, and fully discounted by the market.
Tuesday’s econ calendar is very heavy with plenty of reports, and Wednesday’s calendar is very weighty with FOMC events. The quarterly earnings onslaught continues, and this stage continues shaping a different profile than the first round of reports.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.