S&P
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2948.50 | 2950.50 |
| …would target | 2953.75 | 2955.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2937.75 | 2940.00 |
| …would target | 2932.25 | 2934.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP INVALIDATED | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Monday afternoon had hesitated to extend above 2951.50 ahead of post-close GOOGL earnings. That became a late dip that extended down through the close to 2942.00 and then to 2936.00 overnight.
All of which could have been reversed had the overnight bounce to 2945.50 been maintained. But its reaction greeted the open too low and the overnight low’s retest eventually resolved down sharply to 2926.00.
Monday’s “unfinished business” above at 2954.25 would seem to be in another universe at that point. Unfinished business was created below on oversold RSIs at the morning’s 2926.00 low. None of which prevented the morning’s bias environment exit from surging back into the 2935.00-2940.00 post-open range. Or from probing above the afternoon’s 2941.50 bias-up signal, despite already triggering no-bias.
AAPL’s post-close earnings is probably responsible for hovering at the afternoon’s 2947.00 bias-up target — despite not triggering bias-up, and being no-bias trending. And now a last-minute surge to 2950.50 has extended sharply higher to 2956.50 in reaction to AAPL’s favorable earnings reaction. AMD did well, too.
Unfinished business above is neutralized. Extending the rally Wednesday morning will be difficult ahead of the afternoon’s FOMC events. Potential to back-and-fill is likelier than actually reversing the trend down. Extending higher would next target 2969.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Calculable resistance and the previous downtrending support (now resistance) of the massive Falling Wedge coincided at 1.1235. Both were probed Tuesday morning, as 1.1280 “higher prior lows” were attacked up to 1.1275. Closing above 1.1235 would create a position of strength to enable backing-and-filling to help form a bottom, so long as the lows are not retested.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Overnight strength continued the pattern — or, lack thereof — for stringing together two consecutive similar sessions that would signal trending. Gapping up was retraced immediately to fill the gap back down to Monday’s close, which held as price fluctuated sideways in positive territory. A second consecutive higher close is still needed to signal Monday’s break did not gain traction.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Despite bouncing overnight from Monday’s drop, Tuesday’s choppy open dipped to 14.85. And despite the dip, positive territory was recovered up to 15.00. All of which helps to suggest Monday’s drop won’t extend, but a higher close is still needed.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Closing under 147-04 and testing 146-30 Monday extended down only to 146-24 before bouncing up to 147-18. Wednesday’s FOMC isn’t being greeted from a position of strength or weakness.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Already testing the 64.35 buy signal before Tuesday’s open was suspicious, and its resistance did launch a reaction down that filled the gap back to Monday’s close down to 63.30. The buy signal is free to trigger cleanly, but post-close API and Wednesday morning’s EIA are not being greeted from a position of strength.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s intraday recovery firmed a little further overnight to pierce Friday’s 2.60 high by a penny, but Tuesday’s open slid to test 2.57. No buy signal is being confirmed, but the restrained optimism is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective.
Mid-day Update… NO-BIAS TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL.
Does the market care? It’s range is being probed anyway.
Sloshing around through the open bled into the bias environment, triggering bias-down and repeatedly attacking its 2935.00 bias-down target. 
The target expanded to 2933.00-2934.00, with plenty of time for its test to be recovered before marginalizing buyers for the day. In fact, its test plunged to 2926.00, and still recovered in time to avoid marginalizing buyers.
Meanwhile, simultaneously oversold 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs left outstanding at the 2926.00 low require an eventual retest. That didn’t prevent extending the bounce to fresh post-open highs testing the pre-open 2945.50 high. Which is “no-bias trending,” since the 2941.50 bias-up signal held its test through 1:20 to trigger no-bias. So, 2941.50 is likely to be retraced at or through the bias environment exit.
The balance of the session is vulnerable not so much to trending as it is to gravitating toward one end of the range or the other. Exiting the bias environment back within the 2935.00-2940.00 post-open range — especially under it — would likely extend down to the 2926.00 low. Leaving its attraction outstanding as “unfinished business” would make a retest of yesterday’s highs. likelier to reverse down.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed May 1, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday’s pre-open ADP is not only high-profile and influential to price action, it also offers a chance to gauge market sentiment ahead of Friday’s payrolls report. Being a pre-open report, any noticeable reaction is likely to be duplicated in reaction to the post-open reports. Two of which are also both high-profile and influential. As if the day’s econ calendar isn’t busy enough, the afternoon’s FOMC policy statement and Fed Chair Q&A are the most influential to price action.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*ADP Employment Report
8:15 AM ET
Treasury Refunding Announcement
8:30 AM ET
*PMI Manufacturing Index
9:45 AM ET
*ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
*FOMC Meeting Announcement
2:00 PM ET
*Fed Chair Press Conference
2:30 PM ET