S&P
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Nov 22, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: None of Tuesday’s econ reports has a track record for influencing price action. Redbook will be of interest if only to help establish a baseline of retail activity with so-called Black Friday only days away.
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
Existing Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
2-Yr FRN Note Auction
11:30 AM ET
5-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2195.00 | 2192.50 |
| …would target | 2202.00 | 2199.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2189.00 | 2186.50 |
| …would target | 2183.25 | 2180.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… A peculiar bearishness.
Probing fresh highs, albeit only temporarily.
The 2186.50 open was under Friday’s 2187.50 opening high, so the gap was contained within the range. That didn’t prevent extending higher to within 1 tick of the 2191.50 bias-up target.
1-minute RSI was diverging negatively again when 3-minute RSI finally left being persistently overbought, and price started diving. The 2195.00 bias-up signal was touched at the dive’s low, well after 10:15 and just before 10:30. So, this is a bias-up environment.
The character of price action at the high suggests it will be retested in even the most bearish scenario. Presumably, its retest would at least touch 2192.00. That’s not necessary, and it’s even unlikely if 2195.00 is probed when the bias environment starts lapsing at 11:30.
The bearish WedEX’s influence is probably moot, unless the balance of the morning were to trend down through the overnight lows — which is unlikely, because that would be under the bias-up signal during a bias-up environment. But there remains a window for injecting a pullback before Thursday’s bullish seasonality, so I’m not expecting volatility to subside.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The overnight rally has extended to its own fresh highs at 2187.50. That’s also where Friday’s open blipped-up, and then blapped-down. Optimally for maintaining the bearish WedEX influence, resistance will become obvious within 2-3 minutes post-open. Alternatively, the opening 15 minutes of volatility could contain a bigger blip-up and blap-down. Otherwise, maintaining any more strength beyond the open would become more vulnerable to extending higher.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Coming down to it.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Friday’s expiration open had recovered from an overnight drop to 2176.50. The 2185.50 opening print was up 6 ticks, but it didn’t hold after blipping-up to 2187.50. Reversing down sharply attacked the overnight low to within 1 point at 2177.50. The balance of the session ranged sideways, resisted up to 2182.75. The bearish WedEX’s influence was minor, if any, but not contradicted or invalidated
Overnight action’s new info…
Gradual firming was soon hovering back in the 2185.00-2186.00 zone until Europe’s opens. A mini-plunge down to 2179.25 was recovered as quickly, and more so, piercing a fresh high at 2186.00.
If, then…
The bearish WedEX setup influence should send price trending down post-open, regardless of the opening print, and whether or not the slope is steep. The slope should be steeper than shallow, since Friday’s influence was nominal. And the opening print should still be within the current range. So, we’ll consider the WedEX influence moot only after gapping up above 2185.00-2186.00, or if not reversed down fast. Meanwhile, we’re also sensitive to the ongoing rally injecting a pullback to at least 2162.00, before that opportunity is inhibited by Thanksgiving’s seasonal bullishness. But the pullback potential could become a multi-session short-squeeze on the way up to 2220.00 if gapping up above 2185.00-2186.00 were maintained through the open and extended above 2192.00.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2186.25 would be likely to trigger the 2185.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2180.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.