S&P
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2199.50 | 2197.00 |
| …would target | 2205.00 | 2202.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2191.75 | 2189.25 |
| …would target | 2186.75 | 2184.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
The bearish WedEX didn’t invert, so the distributive influence that had triggered it last week was already absorbed. And not arbitrarily, Closing above the 2192.00 room for noise above 2185.00-2186.00 has signaled the rally is extending to 2220.00. “Unfinished business above” was left outstanding at 2199.50, and upside momentum won’t be threatened Tuesday without immediately breaking back under Friday’s 2187.50 prior high.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Big close.
Hovering above all prior highs.
This morning’s upside momentum was only barely violated by 2-3 ticks. This afternoon’s bias-up was not invalidated. Its 2199.50 bias-up target has become “unfinished business above.”
While the open was unlikely to sit still, whether that meant reversing down or extending higher, that’s no longer the case today. The balance of the session may continue hovering at or above the 2192.00 resistance.
2192.00 had been the room for noise above 2185.00-2186.00. It has been probed only once, with only a little complexity. Closing under 2192.00 would not be enough to indicate it held — the close must also finish under 2185.00-2186.00.
Otherwise, the rally will have entrenched itself. And pullback, or not, the next higher objective at 2220.00 would be in-play.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Monday only touched the original 1.0655 target as resistance before reversing back to unchanged, poied to resume the decline next targeting 1.0545.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing the 1213.00 bounce limit through Monday’s open ultimately held as resistance, keeping alive potential for a fresh low at 1196.50.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Still testing and retesting the 16.62 prior low Monday won’t launch a credible recovery without first probing deeper. By the same token, delaying a deeper dip would be “ineffectual optimism,” making an eventual deeper less likely to recover, at all.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Bouncing Sunday night stopped short of 154-19 whose recovery is the minimum requirement to even consider that Friday’s break lower was ultimately absorbed. Anything shallower, and probably anything any later, is likely just a temporary correction before the recent range proves it has been a continuation pattern targeting sharply lower lows.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Russia joining the mix of recent OPEC headlines triggered a gap up Monday to resume the rally next targeting the 49.00 area (basis Jan, 48.25 basis Dec). It was attacked to within 50 cents intraday, so that pullbacks must now hold 46.40 (basis Jan, 45.70 basis Dec) to maintain the rally’s momentum.
Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up again on Monday needed only to be maintained for a second consecutive higher close above 2.80 to signal momentum reversing up. While that typically becomes a rally leg, two gaps left outstanding below does suggest a rally would be premature. Dipping intraday to fill one or both gaps would now be likely to recover and to reverse up.
Mid-day Update… New highs, old sponsorship.
The rally persists, but without a corrective refueling dip.
This morning’s 2185.00 bias-up signal held as support when tested during the morning’s bias environment. The plunge that tested it stopped suddenly and reversed up gradually. The earlier pattern at 2191.25 requiring a retest was then probed into the noon hour.
The room for noise above 2185.00-2186.00 up to 2192.00 wasn’t very influential as the rally extended through the noon hour. Now 2195.25 has been touched, while triggering this afternoon’s 2192.50 bias-up signal.
It’s too late to invalidate the bias-up, targeting 2199.50. But bias-up can be invalidated by exiting the bias environment back under the 2186.50 bias-down signal — so long as 2195.25 isn’t yet probed. Otherwise, a fresh high would entrench the uptrend.
Currently, a 2193.50 pullback limit is being tested, and back under 2192.50 would reverse momentum down to at least test 2188.25. None of which alone would yet invalidate the upside.