S&P
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Nov 23, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Being the day before a holiday has caused reports to be lumped into Wednesday, making it a very busy session. More so, several of the day’s reports are high-profile and/or influential to price action. More more so, the innocently illiquid afternoon will be hit by one of the month’s more reliably influential reports, FOMC Minutes. Note that any clear price reaction to the pre-open Durable Goods report is likely to be duplicated by the morning’s other reports.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
FHFA House Price Index
9:00 AM ET
*PMI Manufacturing Index Flash
9:45 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
New Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
*EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
12:00 PM ET
7-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
*FOMC Minutes
2:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2199.50 | 2196.75 |
| …would target | 2205.00 | 2202.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2192.00 | 2189.50 |
| …would target | 2196.75 | 2194.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Hung up.
Gapping up and holding.
This morning’s 2197.00 bias-up signal held neatly as support when tested by the overnight pullback from 2203.00. Bouncing into and out of the open quickly extended up to 2201.00. Another reaction down to 2198.00 was recovered back to 2201.00.
It’s too late to reject 2197.00 and avoid triggering bias-up. It’s too late for a break under 2197.00 to invalidate the bias-up. The 2202.50 bias-up target is in-play. Its test is likely also to visit the 2203.00 high for being a “new Globex trend extreme,” potentially up to 2105.50.
None of which is preventing yet another reaction from retesting 2198.00. Sellers aren’t entirely marginalized, and a runaway rally isn’t likely. Under 2197.50 could extend down another 3 points, and still be likely to recover.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The reaction down from the 2203.00 overnight higgh has dipped a little deeper to test this morning’s 2197.00 bias-up signal as support. That’s still above yesterday’s range, diminishing the risk of isolating the probe above yesterday’s range to the overnight. That doesn’t ensure triggering the bias-up signal, whose alternative would put into play an offsetting test of the 1289.25 bias-down signal, at least. Meanwhile, Crude Oil has reacted down already from fulfilling its target overnight, diminishing its effect as a bearish catalyst. This morning’s bias signal could be predictive of the next two days.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Last likely window for down.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Pessimism was glaringly absent Monday. Gapping up to just under Friday’s 2187.50 high and then extending through it eventually touched 2196.50. An interim 6-1/2 point dip was recovered along the way. But there was otherwise no bearish WedEX influence. The indicator didn’t invert, which means that the distributive influence it had identified originally was already absorbed. The reward was to close above 2192.00, which was the room for noise above 2185.00-2186.00, and which signals that the rally is extending to 2220.00. “Unfinished business above” was left outstanding at 2199.50.
Overnight action’s new info…
Monday’s futures close had reacted back down to touch 2192.00, but only momentarily. The intraday rally soon resumed and extended up to 2203.00 well before midnight, fulfilling the intraday upside target that was left outstanding. Complexity to the rally has created a “new Globex trend extreme” which requires eventually retesting its high intraday. Meanwhile, consolidating narrowly for several hours wasn’t impressed by Europe’s opens, and price soon began dipping. Still a couple of points above yesterday’s late high, the pullback is now testing 2198.00.
If, then…
Absorbing the bearish WedEX and putting into play 2220.00 don’t protect against corrective dips. The seasonally bullish Thanksgiving holiday doesn’t protect against a pullback either, it only inhibits. And that’s not until this afternoon. Which makes this morning the last and likeliest opportunity for a natural correction. The opportunity is greater for having entrenched further upside with the new upside target, and the new Globex trend extreme’s required retest to help recover from its reaction down. It’s also interesting that the overnight high tested and held this morning’s bias-up target. But the overnight higher highs also help to expend selling pressure before it can start damaging the chart — so long as the open isn’t back within yesterday’s range, which would isolate the fresh highs to the overnight, and could point down sharply.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2194.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2197.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2199.50 would be likely to trigger bias-up.